Brazil expects record ethanol production in 2018/19

According to data released by Conab this week (Brazil’s National Agricultural Supply Company) the country’s ethanol production is expected to increase by 23.3% to 33.58bn liters in the 2018/19 crop cycle, up by 6.3bn liters from the 2017/18 season. This season’s volume will surpass the previous record of 30.5bn liters produced in 2015/16. A drop in global sugar prices, higher demands for ethanol at the fuel pumps in Brazil and the value of the dollar have driven Brazil’s cane mills to favor ethanol production over sugar.

Brazil produced 1.3% less sugarcane in the 2018/19 crop cycle year-on-year, at 625.2m tons, Conab said. Sugar production reached 31.35m tons, down 17.2% or 6.5m tons, compared to the last harvest.

Unica data shows Brazil’s sugar production plummeted in the 2015/16 season to 33.84m tons; however, the country bounced back in subsequent years. The following graph (based on Unica data) displays Brazil’s sugar and ethanol production patterns for the last five seasons:

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