EU maize import surge seen cushioning impact of drought-hit crop

Consultancy Strategie Grains further cut its monthly forecast for the European Union’s drought-affected maize harvest, but said a wave of imports from Ukraine was helping limit supply tensions.

In a monthly cereal report, the French firm lowered its 2022 EU maize (corn) crop forecast to 50.4 million tonnes from 52.9 million projected in September.

That was nearly 25% below its forecast of 66.8 million tonnes in June, before severe drought and heatwaves damaged plants during key summer growth stages.

The latest outlook was 28% below estimated 2021 production and would be the smallest EU crop in 15 years.

However, Strategie Grains raised its projection of EU maize imports in the current 2022/23 season following a recent rush of imports supported by a Black Sea corridor for Ukrainian shipments.

“The European maize harvest is confirmed at the calamitously low level of just over 50 million tonnes, although users already anticipated this production crash and imported massively,” it said in the report.

“Thus, the European maize market is effectively finding some breathing space thanks to the arrival of Ukrainian (as well as Brazilian) corn.”

Supply would remain dependant on the war situation in Ukraine, including the continuation of the shipping corridor, Strategie Grains added.

It increased its forecast for EU maize imports in 2022/23 to 23.0 million tonnes from 21.4 million projected last month, with imports from Ukraine now expected at 12.8 million tonnes against 10.4 million forecast in September.

An economic slowdown may also temper supply tensions in maize, the consultancy said.

Source: Reuters

To read the full original article, please go to: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-maize-import-surge-seen-cushioning-impact-drought-hit-crop-2022-10-20/

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