Exports and balance surplus expected to fall in 2022

Brazilian exports are expected to reach US$ 262.379 billion next year, a drop of 4.7% compared to the US$ 275.316 billion estimated for 2021. Imports, however, may grow by 4.5% compared to US$ 218.094 billion projected for this year, reaching US$ 227.855 billion. The forecast released on December 8 by the Brazilian Foreign Trade Association (AEB) for the trade balance next year indicates that the trade surplus could reach US$ 34.524 billion, down 39.7% from the US$ 57.222 billion estimated for 2021.

According to the AEB, the increase in imports and the fall in exports in 2022 will cause a negative contribution from foreign trade in the calculation of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the sum of all goods and services produced in the country.

In addition to the uncertain internal scenario with the upcoming elections, the main factor affecting the Brazilian trade balance will be commodities (primary products with international prices), whose prices are very high but with nothing to support this, said the executive president of the AEB, José Augusto de Castro, to Agência Brasil. “Commodity prices are likely to fall in 2022,” he said.

Imports
Imports, on the other hand, continue to grow, due to the lack of components, containers, and ships; companies are forced to buy abroad. As a result, many products have had a significant increase in prices and import quantity. Examples include natural gas, which increased 98% in quantity and 88% in price,  fertilizers (+22% in volume and +48% in price), and medicines (+15% in quantity and +52% in price).

Source: Bahia.ba

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