FAO expects the first drop in cereal production in four years to occur in 2022/23

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) first outlook for global cereal production in 2022/23 points to a drop, the first in four years. The estimated fall is 2.78 billion tonnes, a reduction of 16 million tons from the record of 2021/22.

Maize production is expected to fall the most, followed by wheat and rice, while barley and sorghum production is expected to improve.

FAO’s forecasts are based on the current state of the crops in the ground as well as the planting intentions of future crops.

World cereal use is also expected to decline marginally in 2022/23 by around 0.1% from 2021/22 to 2.79 billion tonnes, marking the first contraction in 20 years.

“The fall is mostly due to predicted cutbacks in wheat, fodder grains, and rice use,” the text states.

World cereal trade is expected to drop 2.6% from the 2021/22 level to 463 million tonnes, the first low in three years, even with a positive outlook for the international rice trade.

According to the updated projections, inventories will decline, lowering the world cereal stock/use ratio to 29.6 percent in 2022/23 from 30.5 percent in 2021/22. This new low is the lowest in nine years but still significantly above the 2007/08 low of 21.4 percent.

According to the FAO, “a decrease in maize stocks is likely to lead the drop, while wheat stocks are expected to climb.”

Source: Valor Econômico 

To read the full original article, please go to:

https://valor.globo.com/agronegocios/noticia/2022/06/03/fao-preve-queda-na-producao-de-cereais-em-202223-a-primeira-em-quatro-anos.ghtml

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