Fertilizers: import pace slows down in Brazil

Much has been said after the outbreak of the war between Russia and Ukraine, especially that sanctions imposed on Russia would limit the global supply of fertilizers. Such a possibility caused fertilizer prices to skyrocket internationally. Under such circumstances, anyone who attempted to buy fertilizers during the year’s second quarter had to pay a hefty price, and the Brazilian market went shopping either way.

By the end of the first half of the year, Brazil had imported around 19.2 million tonnes of fertilizers, 20% more than in the same period of the previous year. However, once a good part of the volumes needed for the harvest was already guaranteed, the pace of imports slowed down. At the end of August, the difference in imports compared to the previous year narrowed to the point that it is now only 10% above last year.

See below the track record of the volume of fertilizers imported by Brazil between January 2019 and August 2022, according to data from the DataLiner platform developed by Datamar.

Brazilian Imports of Fertilizers | | Jan 2019 – Aug 2022 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Is it better to pay more than not having fertilizers? Potassium chloride (KCl) had been trading for a few months at USD 795/t, a very high level compared to past quotations. After the beginning of the conflicts, the price of KCl reached more than USD 1,200/t. That is: an increase of more than 50% in just a few weeks. Urea was another fertilizer that showed a significant increase in this period, going from USD 550/t to USD 985/t, an increase of almost 80%.

The necessity of guaranteeing the supply of fertilizers meant that many producers acquired such products at a very high cost. However, these purchases were made with an acceptable exchange ratio, given that the price of soybeans was very attractive during the period. However, not all producers thought this way. When looking at deliveries to the final consumer, we still find delays.

By the end of July this year, fertilizer deliveries reported by the National Association for the Diffusion of Fertilizers (Anda) showed a delay of 3% compared to the previous year, especially in states that harvest soybeans later on in the year. This fact indicates that there is a possibility of Brazil reducing its total consumption of fertilizers this year.

It is still too early to predict a significant decrease in overall consumption this year, mainly because there have been talks of growth in the planted crop area this year. The combination of an increase in crop area with a sharp drop in fertilizer intake would lead to an expressive reduction of yields per hectare, which, given the high commodity quotations, could be detrimental to the producers’ margins.

The information is from Rabobank Agroinfo as of September 2022.

Source: Canal Rural

To read the full original article, please go to: https://www.canalrural.com.br/noticias/economia/fertilizantes-ritmo-de-importacao-atenua-no-brasil/

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