Grain crops: Brazil supply company forecasts output of 271M tonnes

The National Supply Company (Conab) now estimates net grain output for this season at 271.447 million tonnes, a 6.2% increase over the harvest in 2020/21, which was 15.9 million tonnes. The data was released on Thursday, August 11, in Conab’s 11th Grain Harvest Study.

Corn producers are expected to harvest 87.4 million tonnes in the second crop of the cereal in the 2021/22 season. With the good performance of the crops, the harvest continues to advance and now exceeds 79% of the planted area, as indicated by the state-owned company this week.

If accurate, the predicted volume for the second corn crop will be the greatest in the historical series. The figure takes into account the decrease in productivity from the last survey owing to a lack of rain and pest assaults in significant producing regions such as Paraná. In the previous cycle, the rise in output was 44%.

Another prominent crop is cotton. The fiber harvest is in progress under favorable weather conditions, with more than 67% of the cultivated area already harvested, with completion estimated for September. If, on the one hand, the climate affected productivity in some crops due to water stress, on the other hand, the dry weather observed in most producing regions positively influenced the quality of the final product. According to the Conab survey, the expectation is for a harvest of 2.74 million tonnes of cotton lint, 16% higher than the previous harvest.

See below the track record of Brazilian exports of cotton from January 2021 to June 2022. The data is from Datamar’s DataLiner.

Cotton Exports from Brazil | Jan 2019 – Jun 2022 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Regarding beans, the second harvest is nearly complete, with only a few plots to be collected in the first half of August. Despite the climatic changes experienced over the cycle, output could reach roughly 1.36 million tonnes, a 19.5% increase over the previous season.

As for the third crop, the company’s experts confirmed that the crops had already been implanted, indicating that the cycle remains in full swing. However, the planted area was reduced compared to 2020/21, owing to significant competition from corn and wheat cultivation, cereals that extended their areas in this cycle. Nonetheless, overall grain production will be close to 3 million tonnes.

Among the winter goods, crop seeding was finished in July. Wheat, the major crop, is expected to generate a record 9.2 million tonnes. This 19.3% rise in output is due to a greater planted area, with a substantial expansion in Rio Grande do Sul — reaching 18% in the state of Rio Grande do Sul compared to the previous harvest —as well as an expectation of increased productivity.

1st crop products, soybean and rice, have an estimated production of 124 million tonnes and 10.8 million tonnes, respectively. The result observed in the oilseed harvest reflects the severe drought that occurred at the end of 2021 in the south of the country and part of Mato Grosso do Sul. The weather also influenced rice productivity, which, combined with a smaller planted area, had the harvest reduced by 8.4% compared to the previous crop. In the case of the yield of corn, production remained practically stable, at a volume close to 25 million tonnes.

See below the track record of Brazilian corn exports from January 2019 to June 2022. The chart below was done using data gathered by Datamar’s business intelligence team in the platform DataLiner.

Corn exports from Brazil | Jan 2019 – Jun 2022 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Wheat in the 2021/2022 harvest (August 2021 to July 2022 business year) ended with closing stocks totaling 722.6 thousand tonnes. Other adjustments were made to the export and import data ended last month, estimated at around 6 million tonnes and 3 million tonnes, respectively. Therefore, for the crop that begins, the expectation is that the stock will end at 1.6 million tonnes.

Conab also altered the supply picture for soybeans. According to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics’ stock assessment, closing stockpiles of the oilseed were adjusted to 7.66 million tonnes (IBGE). This rise in ending stocks for the 2020/21 harvest also increased forecasts for a larger carry-over stock in the 2021/22 harvest, from 4.65 million tonnes to 5.98 million tonnes. Furthermore, soybean oil exports were anticipated to climb to 2.1 million tonnes due to robust sales to the foreign market between January and July of this year, high international pricing, and favorable crushing margins.

Domestic consumption of corn was somewhat adjusted in comparison to the previous survey. Another highlight is the 80.2% growth in grain exports, with 37.5 million tons expected to exit the nation via ports. Ending stocks also tend to grow by 25.3% compared to the previous harvest, indicating a recomposition of the cereal’s internal availability after the current crop year.

Cotton exports slowed in July this year due to poor availability of product supplies, with 19.68 thousand tonnes exported, a figure 68.63% lower than in June and 66.2% lower than in the same period last year. However, the situation may improve in October when the fresh crop becomes ready for purchase. In this study, the values in the supply table for rice and beans did not vary much.

Source: Canal Rural

To read the full original article, please go to: https://www.canalrural.com.br/noticias/graos-conab-projeta-safra-do-brasil-em-mais-de-271-milhoes-de-toneladas/

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