Grain production will grow 27% over the next ten years, reaching 333 million tons

Grain production is expected to reach 333.1 million tons over the next ten years. With what the country produces in this season of 2020/2021, the increase in production until 2030/2031 should be 71 million tons, increasing 27.1%, at a growth rate of 2.4% per year. Soybeans, second-crop corn, and cotton should continue to drive growth in grain production.

The numbers are from the study Projections of Agribusiness, Brazil 2020/21 to 2030/31, carried out by the agricultural policy secretariat of MAPA (the ministry of agriculture, livestock, and food supply), by SIRE/EMBRAPA (the secretariat of intelligence and strategic relations of the Brazilian agricultural research corporation), and by the department of statistics of the University of Brasília.

The domestic market, exports, and productivity gains should be the main growth factors in the next decade, according to the study. Innovation advancement must continue to permeate activities in the field, as there is a great attraction for new technologies.

The production of meat (beef, pork, and poultry) between 2020/21 and 2030/31 is expected to increase by 6.6 million tons, representing an increase of 24.1%. Chicken and pork should show the greatest growth in the coming years: chicken meat (27.7%) and pork (25.8%). Beef production should grow 17% between the base year and the end of the projections. “These percentages may be at higher levels, given the increased demand for animal protein,” warns José Garcia, general coordinator of policy assessment and information at the ministry and one of the researchers in the projections.

Products for export

The domestic market, together with exports and productivity gains, should be the main source of growth in the next decade. In 2030/31, 33.7% of soy products should be destined for the domestic market, for corn, 71.6%, and for coffee, 43% of production should be consumed internally. “There will thus be pressure on the increase in national production, due to the growth of the internal market and the country’s exports,” assesses Gasques.

In meat, there will be strong pressure from the international market, especially for beef and pork, although Brazil will continue to lead the international chicken market. Of the expected increase in chicken meat production, 71.4% of the 2030/31 production will be destined for the domestic market; of the beef produced, 64.0% should go to the domestic market, and 73.8% of pork. Thus, although Brazil is, in general, a great exporter of these products, domestic consumption will remain very significant.

The most dynamic products of Brazilian agribusiness should be cotton, soy, corn, pork, beef, chicken, and fruit, especially mangos. “The domestic market and international demand will be the main growth factors for most of these products, which have the greatest potential for production growth in the next ten years,” says the research coordinator.

Sharing is caring!