Huge Chinese, Brazilian corn crops may limit US exports into 2025

China may be poised to grow a record-large corn crop in 2024, besting the previous year’s record despite government incentives aimed at increasing plantings of soybeans at the expense of corn.

That could keep Chinese corn supplies plentiful enough to further reduce reliance on U.S. corn exports, especially with a possible production rebound next year for Brazil, a relatively new corn supplier to China.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Beijing attache this week forecast 2024-25 Chinese corn output up 2.4% to a record 296 million metric tons on improved yields and higher plantings. That would make for a fourth consecutive record in Chinese corn production, which four years ago stood near 261 million tons.

Food security remains of top concern for China, and curbing dependence on imports is part of the strategy. China’s imported corn in 2023-24 is expected to account for 8% of domestic consumption versus 87% for soybeans, prompting increased farmer subsidies for soybeans versus corn in 2024-25.

Chinese farmers still expect higher profits for corn over soy, especially given the recent improvements in corn yields and the potential further growth offered by genetically engineered seeds (GE), only recently introduced. USDA estimates only 1.5% of China’s 2024-25 corn area will be under GE seeds, though that could reach as much as 15% within the next two years.

It is unclear whether further expansion in China’s corn crop will eventually ratchet down the country’s imports, which have been historically strong in the last four years despite the bumper crops. USDA’s attache projects 2024-25 Chinese corn imports at 20 million tons, down from 23 million this year.

Brazil has been China’s top corn supplier since Brazilian vessels first began arriving there in early 2023, pushing out U.S. exports, which had been hot since China started buying large volumes of U.S. corn in mid-2020.

USDA’s Brasilia attache this week pegged 2024-25 Brazilian corn production up 6% from this year on a return to normal yields and a slightly higher area. However, a smaller 2023-24 crop, most of which is still being grown, could keep Brazilian corn prices higher and favor rival exporters.

The following chart shows the export volume of Brazilian corn from January 2022 to February 2024. The data comes from Datamar’s top-notch maritime trade intelligence service DataLiner.

Brazilian Corn Exports | Jan 2022 – Fev 2024 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Falling U.S. corn prices could be U.S. exporters’ ticket into China and other markets while Brazilian supply is lighter. Chinese corn prices are often well above global ones, so sufficiently low prices overseas can have Chinese buyers preferring imports even when domestic supply is plentiful.

U.S. PACE PICKING UP

Census Bureau data released on Thursday showed February U.S. corn exports at a nine-month high of 5.37 million tons, up 64% from last year and safely above the five-year average. March-May is the busiest time for U.S. corn shipments, and that was highlighted in last week’s export numbers.

USDA figures on Thursday placed U.S. corn exports in the week ended March 28 at a marketing-year high of 1.64 million tons, well above the 1.43 million reported on Monday as inspected for export during that same week.

However, almost none of the February U.S. corn volume was to China, and as few as two cargoes were shipped there last month. As of March 28, just 157,100 tons of purchased U.S. corn still awaited shipment to China in 2023-24, the lowest for that date in seven years.

Potentially helpful for U.S. exporters is the backing off of Brazilian corn exports last month. Brazil on Thursday reported March corn exports at 431,307 tons, two-thirds lighter than a year ago. Less than 20% was to China.

Writing by Karen Braun for Reuters

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