IBGE estimates 1% fall in 2020 grain harvest

The first estimate for next year’s national grain crop indicates a 1% drop in production. According to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), 238.5m tons will be harvested, which corresponds to a difference of 2.3m tons in relation to the previous year.

It is the second largest estimate in the historical series started in 1975, just behind 2017, with 240.6m.

According to the IBGE, the reduction is due to lower expected production for maize (-7.5%). Growth of 4.7% is expected for soybean.

Three of the five heaviest products should also have lower yields: herbaceous cotton (-0.1%), first crop beans (-1.5%), and first crop corn (-1.2%). Estimates point to better prospects for soybeans, with growth of 4.7%. Another product that should have positive variation is rice (1.6%).

Area – Regarding the planted area, the data are positive for the herbaceous stone cotton, which may grow 4.4% in the current space, which corresponds to 1.7m hectares.

According to IBGE, the abundant and regular rainfall in the main producing regions of Mato Grosso and Bahia benefited the crops, which reached high productivity (4,234 kg/ha) this year. “By 2020, climate uncertainties are reducing the average yield estimate,” the institute says.

Apesar da queda, essa é a segunda maior estimativa da série histórica iniciada em 1975, ficando atrás somente de 2017 (240,6 milhões). Saiba mais na Agência #IBGE Notícias: https://t.co/sIWpcGeatc pic.twitter.com/Rt6WJz5dPk

— IBGE Comunica (@ibgecomunica) November 13, 2019

The prognosis for soybeans is an increase of 0.8% in planted area and for corn, 0.4%. The reductions will be due to the area of first crop beans (-0.3%) and rice (-0.9%).

Beans – The first estimate of bean production for the 2020 crop indicates the production of 2.8m tons, which represents a 7.0% decrease compared to the 2019 crop. According to IBGE, the first crop should produce 1.3m tons; the second crop, 1.1m tons; and the third crop, 461,900 tons.

The IBGE also informed that, as the planting and harvesting of the second and third bean crop will occur in 2020, production estimates may have major changes in the coming forecasts.

2019 Crop – Today (11/13) the IBGE also announced that the national crop of cereals, legumes, and oilseeds should reach 240.8m tons, or 6.3% higher than the 2018, which recorded 226.5m tons. The result means growth of 77,500 tons compared to the previous month’s estimate.

The previous record was in 2017, with production of 238.4m tons. The estimated area to be harvested is 63.1m hectares, up 3.6% from 2018.

Together, rice, corn, and soybeans, the group’s three main products, accounted for 92.8% of the estimated production and 87.0% of the area to be harvested.

Estimated soybean production is of 113.0m tons. Corn will have a record production of 100.2m tons (25.9m tons of corn in the first crop and 74.3m tons of corn in the second crop).

For rice, production is estimated at 10.3m tons. Cotton may hit a record in IBGE’s historic series, with production of 6.9m tons. Compared to 2018, there was a 4.1% drop for soybeans and 12.0% for rice, but also a 23.2% growth for corn and 39.7% for herbaceous cotton.

Source: Agência Brasil

Sharing is caring!