IMO on brink of ‘historic failure’ as crunch green talks get underway

Global maritime environment policy is set to be revised at the forthcoming Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) set of meetings at the headquarters of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) in London this week. To what degree remains highly uncertain as big nations such as China and Brazil lobby for less stringent new green targets with carbon levies not at all certain.

IMO member states will debate a revised greenhouse gas strategy. Currently, the goal is for a minimum 50% cut in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 compared to 2008 levels.

The IMO is keen to develop a basket of technical and economic measures to get global shipping moving quicker towards green targets, but its diverse membership is not in total agreement about how to enact these.

Last week’s Intersessional Working Group on Reduction of GHG Emissions from Ships (ISWG-GHG 15) met ahead of the MEPC gathering with NGOs warning the UN body risks suffering a “historic failure”.

The drafting being forwarded to this week’s MEPC negotiations include some further narrowing down of options, however there are still large ranges on key parameters. For example the current leading proposal for 2030 and 2040 interim GHG reduction targets is a 20% GHG reduction in 2030 and 70% GHG reduction in 2040, likely on a well-to-wake basis, something that shipping decarbonisation experts say would put shipping some way off from complying with the 1.5 degree commitments of the Paris Agreement.

The Financial Times has reported that China has been lobbying a host of developing countries to water down green proposals while Climate Home, a climate change news site, has reported that Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Uruguay, Guatemala, Ecuador, and South Africa are also opposed to any form of a carbon levy.

The other key items that remain under debate include the shortlisting of the mid-term measures and the way a just transition is included and referenced in both the revised strategy and in relation to mid-term measures. Although there was significant and coordinated opposition to the levy proposals moving forwards for finalisation from MEPC 80 last week, there was a majority who supported this to happen, and GHG pricing is currently on track to move forwards. There was a majority supporting that the IMO’s timeline for adoption of the mid-term measures is by 2025.

Dr Tristan Smith, director of UMAS, said the coming week serves as the last chance to “credibly align” shipping with the Paris Agreement, arguing that the main text is not 1.5-aligned, but it still can be if there is a “change in the dynamic”.

Faig Abbasov from the NGO Transport & Environment said: “By removing any explicit reference to 1.5C and gutting out the 2030, 2040 and even 2050 targets, the IMO would essentially recognise that its revised strategy is not 1.5C compliant. If they think that they could fool the whole world with this, they should think twice. Pacific Nations are at the brink of disappearing. European leaders must not abandon them by endorsing this draft strategy text and deploy all of their political capital to improve ambition during the final round of negotiations next week. It is not game over yet until MEPC 80 is over”.

Source: Splash247

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