Imported steel pits consumer industries against steelmakers

The tug-of-war between Brazil-based steelmakers and imported steel consumers, which became personal between the end of 2023 and the beginning of this year, has returned to the sectoral arena, but with no less intensity. On one side, the mills are pushing to raise the import tax rate to 25% and are moving to have China investigated for “dumping” steel exports into the country. On the other side, industries led by the machinery and equipment sector accuse the steel mills of distorting figures to create a scenario worse than reality and call for the debate to remain “technical.”

At the center of this dispute, the federal government has implemented a few measures, which have not satisfied the mills and have been welcomed by the opposition. Recently, the Executive Management Committee of the Chamber of Foreign Trade (Gecex-Camex) announced the reinstatement of import tariffs on five steel products (tubes and bars), which had been reduced in 2022 to a range of 12% to 16%, in line with Mercosur’s Common External Tariff (TEC).

Both sides agree that this initiative did not fully address the steelmakers’ demands. “It was insufficient,” stated leaders of Gerdau and Usiminas, at a time when the sector is seeking more forceful measures. “We felt there were no surprises because the government has access to the consultants’ figures and can assess what is actually happening,” said José Velloso, president of the Brazilian Machinery and Equipment Industry Association (ABIMAQ).

The data shows a significant growth in imports, around 50% by 2023, reaching 5 million tonnes, according to a survey by the Brazil Steel Institute. In January, there was a slight decline of 3% compared to the previous year. Nevertheless, the volume entering the country remains above 350,000 tonnes per month. An increase of 20%, to 6 million tonnes, is expected in 2024.

The chart below shows Brazilian steel imports between Jan 2020 and Dec 2023. The data is from DataLiner.

Brazilian Steel Imports | Jan 2020 – Dec 2023 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

The ABIMAQ claims that while there will be an increase, imports will not reach the highest levels ever recorded. In 2010 and 2021, significant jumps in foreign purchases occurred, driven by strong demand and a shortage of supply, respectively. The organization also highlights that in November 2023, steel in the Brazilian market was the most expensive in the world, only losing that position when Mexico recently increased tariffs on steel products. More countries have adopted quotas or a 25% tariff to protect themselves from Chinese steel.

According to the Platts index by S&P Global Commodity Insights, which ABIMAQ follows, the premium for domestic steel over imported steel rose again to 21% in January—$684.75 per tonne for hot-rolled coil from China, internalized, compared to $828.28 for the domestic price. “In mid-2023, the premium reached 42% and led to an increase in imports,” said Mr. Velloso.

The steelmakers argue that maintaining the current foreign trade policy with minimal correction in import rates will lead to more layoffs and capacity closures. Recently, Gerdau laid off 100 workers in Pindamonhangaba, in the state of São Paulo, totaling nearly a thousand cuts in recent months. “Imports continue because they are part of a Chinese state program, not an isolated action by one company,” said an industry source, noting that data is confirming that Chinese mills are operating with a negative margin of up to 56 dollars per tonne.

Meanwhile, the steel-consuming sectors argue that the same companies that shut down 13 blast furnaces at the start of the pandemic, fearing demand shortages, are now requesting safeguards from the government. At the pandemic’s outset, the occupancy rate of local mills dropped to 45%, compared to 64% today, amid weak demand, leading to the shutdown of blast furnaces.

“If the problem is Chinese steel, the steelmakers shouldn’t be asking for an increase in the rate for all origins. They should use the correct instrument, which is the dumping investigation, not the inclusion of dozens of products in LETEC [Mercosur’s list of exceptions to the common external tariff],” explained Mr. Velloso. He adds that the tax increase sought by steel companies will raise production costs, as Brazil doesn’t produce all the steel types it consumes. “If the invasion is Chinese, Brazil can adopt measures against Chinese steel. When [the mills] ask for LETEC at 25%, they are protecting themselves from the entire world, except Argentina.”

The construction sector also opposes the increase in rates despite only making “occasional” purchases of rebar from abroad, according to Renato Correia, president of the Brazilian Chamber of the Construction Industry (CBIC). He foresees a cascading effect on the price of Brazilian steel if imports become less competitive. The imported steel used in the sector primarily comes from Turkey, not China, due to specific technical requirements.

“This price is certainly passed on to the domestic market,” stated Yorki Estefan, president of Sinduscon-SP, the state of São Paulo builders’ union. The organization notes that steel represents between 5% and 8% of construction costs. Representatives from both organizations have observed significant increases in the price of rebar during the pandemic, with values stabilizing at a high level, impacting the cost of construction.

According to the Brazilian Institute of Economics (FGV Ibre), which calculates the National Construction Cost Index (INCC), the price of rebar has risen by 61% since the beginning of 2019, although there has been a 14% decrease in the last two years. “Steel consumers are benefiting from this drop, which reverses some of the previous price increases, while steelmakers are suffering from falling domestic prices due to the growth of imports,” explained Ana Maria Castelo, coordinator of construction projects at FGV Ibre. She recalls that the construction sector has been “traumatized” by the abrupt increases caused by the pandemic, noting that the price of rebar doubled between the end of 2018 and mid-2022.

“When there was a shortage of steel and a huge increase [in prices], both the construction sector and the machinery and equipment sector had to bear the cost,” explained Mr. Estefan. “We observed decapitalization of construction companies and a positive balance sheet for steel companies.” For him, calling for protectionist measures does not seem appropriate when there is an increased international supply of steel. According to the organizations, any rise in steel prices would have to be passed on to construction contractors.

In a statement, the Brazil Steel Institute explained that it has been involved in technical meetings with the government, highlighting the critical state of the sector. “We have demonstrated why it is necessary to temporarily and urgently raise the import tariff on steel from 18 NCMs (Mercosur Common Nomenclature), out of 273 existing, to 25%, in contrast to the 10.8% currently in effect. Any lower level is insufficient to counteract the influx of foreign steel, considering that major markets such as the United States, 27 EU countries, the United Kingdom, and Mexico have already imposed 25% barriers,” the statement reads.

Source: Valor International

To read the original news report, please check: https://valorinternational.globo.com/business/news/2024/02/26/imported-steel-pits-consumer-industries-against-steelmakers.ghtml

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