Industry Comments on Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Pork and Beef

U.S. tariffs on imported goods from Canada, Mexico and China went into effect March 4, with retaliatory tariffs being announced as well.

China is imposing 10% on U.S. pork and beef, along with soybeans, sorghum, aquatic products, fruits and vegetables and dairy imports beginning March 10.

Canada looks to implement a 25% tariff on American goods beginning immediately. The Canadian government will be consulting the public and stakeholders for a second round of tariffs, which will include fruits and vegetables, beef, pork, and dairy among other products.

Mexico’s president, Claudia Sheinbaum, shared in a press conference she would announce tariffs against the U.S. on Sunday, March 9.

According to the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF), total U.S. red meat exports in 2024 was $19.1 billion. Mexico, China and Canada add up to 8.4 billion of the total, about 40%.

Dan Halstrom, USMEF President and CEO, says we could be in for a bumpy ride, but this is not something exporters can’t overcome.

“Nobody likes to see tariffs in terms of our business and the threat of the retaliation back,” Halstrom says. “In terms of the overall impact, it’s tough to know. I happen to think this is a very fluid situation. It could change at a moment’s notice. I think the important thing to remember is that just because there’s tariffs doesn’t mean the trade stops.”

According to the latest USMEF Export Report, U.S. beef exports equated to more than $415 per fed steer or heifer slaughtered and pork exports equated to more than $66 per head slaughtered.

“As is the case with all of our markets, we’re utilizing the whole carcass,” Halstrom says. “There’s a big focus on variety meats, both beef and pork, which aren’t the most utilized cuts. Round meat is huge into Mexico. Half of our hams are exported and mainly go to Mexico.”

While Halstrom says there are concerns for retaliation and also competing with other countries like Brazil that are zero duty, he says we have to remember the quality of product the U.S. exports.

“I do think the other thing that we have definitely in our favor is that demand for our products globally is record breaking,” Halstrom says. “It’s as good as I’ve ever seen it in 40 plus years. We have a very unique product. We have to keep that in mind because that’s a big leverage point.”

Christine McCracken, Rabobank’s executive director of animal protein, shares an outlook for U.S. pork producers.

“There may be some additional relief on feed costs assuming tariffs slow exports of corn and beans,” McCracken says. “Lower feed costs are likely to be offset with higher costs of equipment and building materials, although the industry has telegraphed the likelihood of these increases which will likely limit their immediate impact. Weaned pig prices have also moved higher and could see additional upside, weighing on producer returns.”

She adds that import tariffs will have a limited impact on the industry, whereas retaliatory tariffs on US pork will weigh on the cutout and hog prices.

“With nearly 30% of US pork exported annually, any slowdown in export volumes would have a ripple effect on the entire industry,” McCracken says. “Producers and packers should remain nimble, communicate with their bankers regularly, conserve cash and avoid building inventory.”

In a statement shared with Drovers, NCBA Executive Director of Government Affairs Kent Bacus says, “Tariffs are an important tool in trade negotiations and can be effective when used strategically to accomplish our goals. President Trump understands this, and he kept farmers in mind when he successfully negotiated the trade deal with China and the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement.”

Bacus added President Trump is using tariffs to address concerns with fentanyl, migration and trade imbalances.

“We are hopeful that the scope and duration of tariffs will be limited to avoid impacts to consumers and ranchers that may result from ensuing supply chain disruptions,” he says. “We encourage President Trump to focus his tariff strategy on removing trade barriers and supporting more opportunities for U.S. farmers and ranchers to sell their high-quality beef abroad.”

Source: Drovers

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