January closes with a drop in imports, but it’s still too early to talk about trends, says AEB

Although a drop in imports, compared to 2022, is expected this year, it is still too early to claim that the decline in the daily average of landings in January is already a new trend, says José Augusto de Castro, president of the Foreign Trade Association of the Brazil (AEB).

Trade balance data released on the 1st by the Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex/Mdic) show that imports totaled US$ 20.4 billion, down 1.7% in the average per working day compared to the same month of last year. Export revenues reached US$ 23.1 billion, with an increase of 11.7%, using the same criteria. The surplus in the first month of the year reached US$ 2.7 billion. Last year there was a deficit below US$ 100 million (-US$ 58.7 million).

Castro expects that in 2023 the trade surplus will reach US$ 71 billion. In his prediction, exports and imports should fall compared to last year, but the surplus should increase. This is because he estimates that foreign purchases should fall more than shipments during this year. It is necessary to wait for the results of the coming months to verify the new trends, he says.

In terms of price, there was an increase in both exports and imports, he points out. According to Secex data, the average prices of products shipped in January rose 5.6% compared to the same period last year. In imports, the variation was similar (high of 5%), in the same comparison. The behavior was different in volumes, with a rise of 9.5% in exports and a fall of 1.6% in imports, always based on the daily average.

For Castro, the behavior of the grain harvest, mainly soy, should be on the radar this year, which may favor export amounts. The evolution of the Chinese domestic economy is also expected, which has left the “covid zero” policy behind. For Castro, it is still too early to talk about the expectations of increased exports to the Asian country. For him, there could be a relatively long path for a greater recovery of domestic demand in China.

Source: Valor Econômico

To read the original report, visit: https://valor.globo.com/brasil/noticia/2023/02/01/janeiro-fecha-com-queda-na-importao-mas-ainda-cedo-para-falar-em-tendncia-diz-aeb.ghtml

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