Ocean freight goes from peak to trough in 2022

If ocean freight rates have been falling week after week in recent months, with the PCR31 rates, which follow the lane from North Asia to the East Coast of South America, at US$ 1,100/FEU, according to the Platts Americas bulletin Container Freight, by S&P Global released on November 26, this was not always the case throughout 2022.

A survey released in October by the National Confederation of Industry (CNI) showed that, in 2022, the increase in international freight was the main problem for 90% of companies with foreign trade operations. On a comparison note, in December 2021, tariffs for cargo imported from the Far East to the East Coast of South America peaked at $12,800/FEU.

Several factors raised ocean freight in 2022: the anti-Covid-19 policies imposed by China throughout the year, congestion in American ports, and the war between Russia and Ukraine, which “disrupted” global logistics.

Current situation

But what is behind such a drop in freight rates? It was a combination of factors, including a reduction in trade levels between Brazil and other countries. According to Datamar’s Business Intelligence department, from January to November 2022, Brazilian containerized cargo exports fell by 3.4% compared to the same period in 2021. In terms of imports, the drop was 2.57% over the same period.

In the chart below, made from recent DataLiner data, Datamar’s market intelligence service, one may find the month-on-month movement of containers both in exports and imports:

Brazilian container movement | Jan 2019 –Nov 2022 | TEU

Fonte: DataLiner (clique aqui para solicitar uma demonstração) 

Other factors contributed to the drop in freight rates, such as the war between Russia and Ukraine, which disrupted international trade with severe ramifications for the EU, such as a lack of gas supplies since the bloc was heavily reliant on Russian gas. As a result, the lack of gas has hurt the economy.

In turn, China faces a peak in contamination caused by Covid-19, which has kept workers away from factories and reduced consumer demands.

In addition to the drop in economic activity, port congestion was resolved, and the entry of new ships into the market increased the available tonnage in the freight market.

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