Outlook for Brazil’s 2024/25 Corn Exports Remains Uncertain Amid Strong Domestic Demand

Brazil’s corn export outlook for the 2024/25 season remains uncertain, as strong domestic demand—driven by the food and ethanol sectors—keeps grain stocks at low levels. That’s the assessment of Thais Italiani, market intelligence manager at Hedgepoint Global Markets.

“Brazil is operating with historically low corn stocks due to strong demand, both domestically and internationally. There is potential for production to grow to 126 million tonnes, but this hinges on an increase in second-crop planting,” Italiani explains.

Hedgepoint projects Brazil’s planted corn area to reach 22.3 million hectares in 2024/25, a 3.7% increase over the previous cycle. In terms of volume, output is expected to reach 126 million tonnes, up 3.3%.

If production hits this target, Brazil will be in a position to expand exports. The firm estimates that Brazilian corn shipments could reach 46 million tonnes, marking a 16% increase from the previous season.

Domestic consumption is also expected to rise by 3%, reaching 87.5 million tonnes, with 64 million tonnes allocated to the food sector—1% more than in the previous cycle.

Corn demand for ethanol production is set to surge by 20%, reaching 20.9 million tonnes. If these projections hold, Brazil’s ending stocks will drop sharply by 68%, falling to just 2.8 million tonnes.

The following chart shows Brazil’s corn export volume between January 2021 and January 2025, according to information derived from DataLiner.

Corn Exports | Brazil | Jan 2021 – Jan 2025 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Global Market Dynamics and External Factors

Argentina’s corn production for 2024/25 is projected at 50 million tonnes, in line with the previous cycle, according to Hedgepoint. However, adverse weather conditions could negatively impact this estimate. The Rosario Grain Exchange has already revised its forecast downward to 46 million tonnes.

Argentina’s domestic consumption is expected to remain stable at 14.3 million tonnes, while exports could rise 3% to 36 million tonnes. Meanwhile, ending stocks are projected to drop 10%, settling at 2.8 million tonnes.

In the United States, corn production is estimated at 377.6 million tonnes, a 3% decline from the previous season. Domestic consumption is expected to reach 321.7 million tonnes, while exports are forecast at 62.2 million tonnes, leaving ending stocks at 39.1 million tonnes.

“U.S. corn exports are performing well, surpassing the five-year average. Additionally, the corn-to-soybean price ratio currently favors corn cultivation for the 2025/26 season,” notes Italiani.

However, she warns that an increase in planted acreage in the U.S. could drive prices down.

Another key factor influencing the global corn trade is China’s reduced presence in the market. Chinese corn imports are expected to plummet by 57% in the 2024/25 cycle, totaling just 10 million tonnes. Meanwhile, domestic production is projected to grow 2% to 294.9 million tonnes, with ending stocks reaching 203.2 million tonnes—down 4%, but still at comfortable levels.

Lastly, a potential end to the Black Sea conflict could significantly impact global corn flows. If hostilities subside, corn and wheat shipments from Ukraine and Russia could resume, altering the dynamics of the international market.

Source: Portal do Agronegócio

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