Petrobras predicts increase in exports

Given that Brazil’s refining market is in the process of opening up, Petrobras expects oil exports to grow in the coming years, to the detriment of domestic sales.  The company predicts that shipments abroad would come to represent about 40% of all volume sold by the company between 2021-2025.

By way of comparison, this year, exports have represented approximately one third of Petrobras’ national production. The state-owned company estimates that it will sell, on average, 891,000 barrels a day of the commodity between 2021-2025, which represents an increase of 19.6% in relation to the average for 2020 and double the average of the period between 2015-2019. On the other hand, sales to the domestic market are expected to fall 7%, to 1.252 million barrels / day on average between 2021-2025, compared to the average volume of the last five years.

Petrobras’ director for logistics and sales, André Chiarini, says that the company assumed, in its projections, that the new private refiners will start to work with other sources of supply, in addition to the state-owned company, and that part of the volume sold by the company today to its own units will have to be relocated to the international market as its assets are sold. According to him, the other oil companies present in Brazil will be Petrobras’ main competitors for the domestic market.

Chiarini also stated that he does not see “operational problems” that create barriers to the expected increase in exports. The director believes that China, which buys two thirds of the oil sold by Petrobras abroad, should remain the main destination for the company’s shipments in the coming years, but that the oil company also targets other markets, within a diversification strategy.

“Although we do not see a drastic change in this configuration [of China’s leading role], other markets assume an important role in our strategy,” said the executive. In addition to Europe and the Americas, Chiarini also sees India as a strategic market.

Source: Valor Econômico

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