Pork output and exports in Brazil heading for new record in 2024

Global pork production is expected to reach an inflection point in 2024, with likely reductions in supply from the world’s top three producers. China, the European Union (EU), and the United States are projected to experience annual decreases of 0.5%, 3.0%, and 0.6%, respectively. In contrast, Brazil, the fourth-largest global producer, is expected to increase output by 3.5%.

Challenges for the Swine Industry

African Swine Fever (ASF) continues to pose a significant challenge to the sector, lacking a commercially effective vaccine. Despite a decline in the swine herd in China due to ASF, weak local demand has impacted prices in the early quarters of the year.

In the EU, pork production is expected to decline by 3% in 2024, marking the slowdown of a trend that endured three consecutive years. Increased external competitiveness, especially compared to the Brazilian market and environmental and animal welfare issues, remain challenges for the EU sector.

In the U.S., the sow herd is expected to contract slightly in 2024, influenced by margin declines throughout this year. The cost of breeding and the limited processing capacity of smaller-scale meatpacking plants contribute to this dynamic.

In Brazil, the depreciation of feed costs, recovering exports, and sustained domestic demand have boosted production margins, especially from the second quarter onward.

The chart below shows Brazilian pork exports between Jan 2019 and Oct 2023, according to the DataLiner maritime information service.

Brazilian Pork Exports | Jan 2019 – Oct 2023 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Record Grain Harvest in 2024

A record grain harvest in 2024 is expected to maintain domestic market supply levels and support feed prices. However, climate issues, particularly related to El Niño, represent a point of concern, especially in the Southern region.

Brazilian pork exports are rising, with a volume increase of 11% and a revenue increase of 17% until September. China is the primary destination, accounting for 35% of the total exports.

Rabobank forecasts a 3% to 4% increase in supply in 2024, driven by rising per capita consumption and exports.

Source: Agrimídia

Click here to read the original text in Portuguese: https://www.agrimidia.com.br/suinocultura-industrial/producao-e-exportacao-de-suinos-no-brasil-rumo-a-novo-recorde-em-2024/

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