Rabobank sees potential for Brazil to export 42M tonnes of corn in 2022

Brazil’s exports of corn may reach a record volume of 42 million tonnes in 2022 if the second crop continues in good conditions, allowing the country to harvest record-breaking 113 million tonnes, as indicated by Rabobank this Wednesday (30).

The bank also assesses that a severe decline in Brazil’s soybean output and subsequent reductions in oilseed shipments will make room for an early start of Brazilian corn exports, which usually intensify in the second half of the year.

Besides, Brazilian corn is being more demanded than it usually is, given that the war has impaired Ukraine’s exports recently, prompting new market trends.

The consultancy Safras & Mercado estimates that corn shipments from Brazil may reach up to 2 million tonnes between March and May vis-a-vis less than 150 thousand tonnes in the same period last year, according to figures from the exporters association Anec.

“The reduction in the soybean crop and the limitation of Ukrainian corn shipments will bring forward corn exports in Brazil, which should start in May 2022”, highlighted Rabobank.

See below the track record of Brazilian corn exports from January 2019 to January 2021. The data are from Dataliner.

Brazilian Exports of Corn (HS 1005) | Jan 2019 – Jan 2021 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

The volume projected for the year is close to the historical maximum of 2019, when the country exported 41 million tonnes.

In addition, the 42 million tonnes forecast for the year is two times what the country sold abroad last year when drought and frost affected productivity.

With these volumes, Brazil would once again appear as the second-largest global exporter of corn, surpassing Argentina but still falling behind the United States.

These numbers depend on the confirmation of the second harvest, which will allow the country’s total crop to grow 28% compared to the previous season after producers increase the planted area in the wake of reasonable prices.

Source: Money Times

To read the full original article, please go to:

https://www.moneytimes.com.br/rabobank-ve-potencial-para-brasil-exportar-recorde-de-42-mi-t-de-milho-em-2022/

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