Record harvest boosts fertilizer sales in Brazil

The prospect of a record harvest is expected to be a key driver of growth for Brazil’s fertilizer industry this year, according to Eduardo Monteiro, who heads Mosaic’s operations in Brazil and Paraguay. While input sales for the current crop cycle have already been completed, the historic harvest is likely to fuel demand for nutrients that farmers will apply in the next planting season.

“A record harvest means plants will extract more nutrients from the soil. Farmers will need to replenish those nutrients,” Mr. Monteiro said.

In 2024, fertilizer deliveries in Brazil reached 45.6 million tonnes, the second-highest volume on record. Mr. Monteiro believes deliveries could reach as much as 46 million tonnes, setting a new record.

According to the latest forecast from the National Supply Company (CONAB) in February, Brazil is expected to harvest 325.7 million tonnes of grains in the 2024/25 cycle. If confirmed, this would represent a 9.4% increase over the previous season. To date, Brazil’s largest harvest was in 2022/23, when production reached 322.8 million tonnes.

Another factor supporting fertilizer sales is the improving exchange ratio between grains and inputs observed since the start of the current season. On the Chicago Board of Trade, a global benchmark for agricultural prices, soybean prices have fallen 3.1% over the past 30 days but remain 0.5% higher than six months ago, when Brazilian farmers began planting the 2024/25 crop. Corn prices have dropped 2.8% over the past 30 days but have surged more than 13% over the past six months.

Soybean and corn farmers account for 60% of Brazil’s fertilizer demand, said Mr. Monteiro, who also serves as chairman of the board of the National Association for Fertilizer Distribution (ANDA), which represents industry producers. “Corn prices have rebounded strongly. The trend suggests that farmers who grow soybeans in the summer and corn in the second crop will see solid profitability,” he said.

The chart below exhibits the volume of fertilizers imported through Brazil’s Port of Parangua – the country’s busiest for this type of cargo – between January 2021 and January 2025. The data comes from DataLiner.

Fertilizer Imports | Paranaguá Port | Jan 2021 – Jan 2025 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Meanwhile, prices of key raw materials for the fertilizer industry have remained stable or, in some cases, even declined since last year, Mr. Monteiro observed.

Source: Valor International

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