Research shows that sugar prices will rise with global deficits in 2020/21 and 2021/22.

The raw sugar futures contract is expected to end this year with an annual gain of more than 30%, as a reduced outlook for production in Brazil helps put the global market in deficit. This is according to a Reuters survey of 11 traders and analysts on August 20th.

Prices were seen at 20.5 cents per pound at year-end, up 4% from Thursday’s close and 32% above late 2020 levels, according to the median forecast.

White sugar prices are expected to close 2021 at $520 per ton, up 5% from Thursday’s close and 24% above late 2020 levels.

The research consensus is for a global deficit of 1.8 million tons for the 2020/21 season, followed by a deficit of 2.0 million tons in 2021/22.

Check the chart below for a history of Brazilian sugar exports by semester since 2018:

Brazilian sugar exports by semester | Jan 2018 to Jun 2021 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (To request a DataLiner demo click here)

“We believe that lower production in Brazil due to drought and recent frosts, along with rising global consumption, will ensure that sugar prices will remain relatively high for the rest of this year,” said Samuel Burman, an analyst at Capital Economics.

Survey participants had a median forecast of 32.9 million tons for sugar production in central-southern Brazil in 2021/22, well below the consensus of 36.2 million in a survey released in February, with the prospects diminished by drought and frost.

The region had a sugar production record in 2020/21 of 38.46 million tons.

Source: Money Times

To read the full original article, visit the link:

https://www.moneytimes.com.br/preco-do-acucar-subira-com-deficits-globais-em-2020-21-e-2021-22-aponta-pesquisa/

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