Russian wheat exports set to hit record high in 1H25, with potential impacts on South America

Russia is on track to export a record 29.4 million metric tonnes of wheat in the first half of the 2024/25 export season, according to analysts at the rail logistics company Rusagrotrans. The forecast, revised upward on Monday, reflects robust export performance despite low global prices.

Despite declining international wheat prices, Russian wheat has been exported at record levels this season, ahead of a quota set to take effect on February 15, 2024. The quota is part of the government’s strategy to bolster domestic supply and curb inflation, which currently stands at 9.5%.

Impact on South America

The surge in Russian exports could have significant repercussions for South America, particularly for Argentina, one of the region’s largest wheat exporters. With an economy already strained by a dollar shortage, Argentina heavily relies on its exports to generate foreign currency. Increased Russian supply at competitive prices may pressure Argentine producers and exacerbate the country’s economic challenges.

The chart below builds on DataLiner data, providing a historical overview of Argentina’s monthly containerized wheat shipments between January 2021 and October 2024.

Wheat Exports from Argentina | Jan 2021 – Oct 2024 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Quotas and Projections

The Russian government plans to impose a 10.6 million tonne export quota from February 15 to June 30, 2025, during the second half of the season.

In December, Rusagrotrans adjusted its monthly export projection for December 2024 from 3.4–3.5 million tonnes to 3.7–3.8 million tonnes. While this figure is slightly below the 4.06 million tonnes exported in December 2023, it includes shipments to countries within the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).

In the 2023/24 export season, Russia shipped 27.7 million tonnes in the first half, a benchmark expected to be surpassed this season.

Rising Exports Amid Declining Production

While Russia’s 2024 wheat harvest is projected at 83 million tonnes—down from 92.8 million tonnes in 2023—the country continues to dominate the global wheat export market, demonstrating its ability to meet strong international demand.

These figures cement Russia’s position as one of the world’s leading wheat suppliers. They intensify competition in the global market and place additional pressure on exporters in regions like South America during heightened market rivalry.

Source: Noticias Agrícolas

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