StoneX reduces wheat export and import projections in Brazil

Export of wheat from Brazil in 2023/24 (August/July) is estimated at 2 million tonnes, about 500,000 tonnes lower than the previous projection, according to a forecast by StoneX consultancy released on Monday, the 18.

This reduction comes amidst logistical challenges in exporting wheat through the port of Rio Grande (RS) due to the high volume of soybeans competing for space with the cereal.

“The high volume of soybean at the port is generating speculations of a shorter wheat export window until March, which is atypical compared to recent years when it usually extended until May,” said Jonathan Pinheiro, a risk management consultant at StoneX, in a statement.

The consultancy also mentioned the demand from Brazilian mills for domestic wheat.

“Industries in the Southeast region have started to calculate the acquisition of wheat from the South region, even by land, given the interest in buying at the price levels indicated for the new crop,” the expert said.

This also affects imports, which are now estimated at 4.7 million tonnes, compared to 5.77 million tonnes in the previous forecast.

StoneX also maintained its forecast for Brazil’s wheat crop in 23/24 at a record 11.2 million tonnes, slightly above the previous cycle’s best mark (11.13 million tonnes).

Exports totaled 2.66 million tonnes in 2022/23, while imports reached 4.5 million tonnes during the same period.

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