Study forecasts 3.6% increase in grain production in the country

The Perspectives for Farming study made by The Food Supply and Statistics Agency (Conab) reveals that, despite the fall in crop yields, the Brazilian grain crop, when considering the four main products, should increase by 3.6% by 2020. Four commodities – corn, soybeans, rice, and cotton – are in the spectrum of grains analyzed in this project, which also includes meat, beans, and dairy products.

Depending on the problems in the American crop, the country could hit record numbers in exports of corn. “As for the crop numbers, in the current outlook, we are predicting an area increase of 1m hectares, which should lead to 18.3m hectares planted, with lower productivity (-321 kg/ha) and reduction of 38,000 tons in total production, which should close at 99.2m tons in the 2020 forecast,” explains the director of Agricultural Policy and Company Information, Guilherme Bastos. “There is also an expectation of a 2% increase in domestic demand for corn for use in animal feed.”

For soybeans, the study shows an area growth of 1.7% by 2020, which is lower compared to previous years. Productivity is expected to grow by around 140kg/ha and this is expected to boost production by 7m tons. “Future market prices are expected to recover, thanks to the reduction in planted areas in the US, reaching 937 cents/bu,” explains the director. “The numbers represent an improvement in producer compensation, although they do not reach the levels of previous years.”

Regarding the 2019/20 crop supply and demand scenario, the outlook is for a final soybean inventory of 2.8m tons, with a consumption of 48m tons and exports of 72m tons. “We have the possibility of facing problems in transit stocks, which will not be adequate to meet a very strong international demand,” says the director. “But Brazil should establish itself as the world leader in soy production, save some climate problem, with production at around 122.1m tons, surpassing the US.”

Rice is expected to reduce its area by 19,000 hectares, which will lead to a planted area of 1.6m hectares, still concentrated in the South. The highlight of this commodity, according to the study, is productivity, which comes from growing with migration to irrigated areas and use of more technologies. With this, the rice crop should be approximately 10.7m tons.

Contrary to other products, cotton may suffer a reduction of 6% in area and almost 7% in production due to the increase of stocks and reduction of international prices. With this, the forecast is that the harvest is 2.5m tons with a planted area of 1.5m hectares.

In the agricultural perspectives presented by Conab, other topics were addressed, such as the macroeconomic and geopolitical scenarios in the context of agriculture, infrastructure, market, and commodity production costs.

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