U.S. Tariffs Could Boost Brazilian Rice Exports to Mexico

The sweeping tariffs announced by U.S. President Donald Trump could create opportunities for Brazil’s agricultural exports, particularly rice from Rio Grande do Sul. As president of Federarroz (Federation of Rice Producers Associations), Alexandre Velho pointed out that while the U.S. is currently the main rice supplier to Mexico, Brazil is already a significant secondary source.

Velho emphasized that a likely 10% to 15% reduction in U.S. rice planting in the next season could further benefit Brazilian rice exporters, especially as trade partners seek alternatives to U.S. supply.

The chart below explores Brazil’s containerized rice exports shipped between January 2021 and December 2024. The data comes from DataLiner.

Rice Exports | Jan 2021 – Dec 2024 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Although Trump’s latest tariff package on April 2 did not directly target Mexico and Canada, they still face previously imposed trade barriers, including a 25% tariff on Mexican products—part of the U.S. effort to pressure regional partners on immigration and fentanyl trafficking. In 2024, the U.S. exported $443 million in rice to Mexico, making the market a key battleground for global suppliers.

Potential for Market Expansion

Renan Hein dos Santos, International Relations Advisor for Farsul (Rio Grande do Sul Agriculture Federation), sees a real chance for increased Brazilian rice exports to Mexico, citing the tariff shock as a catalyst for renewing trade agreements between Brazil and Mexico. “This is a prime example of opportunity arising from geopolitical shifts,” he stated.

According to Santos, it’s “expected and inevitable” that countries affected by Trump’s trade moves seek more reliable and stable commercial partners. “In international trade, uncertainty is the enemy. Trustworthy relations are essential,” he added.

Alexandre Velho also confirmed that Brazil is exploring new rice export opportunities in Central America. Shipments to Costa Rica are expected in the first half of the year, and negotiations are underway with Nicaragua and Panama.

Closer Ties with Europe?

Santos also highlighted a possible rapprochement between the European Union and Brazil, noting a shift in France’s position, a country that has historically resisted the Mercosur–EU trade agreement. “France appears to be softening its stance and now supports a potential deal,” he said.

Broader Impact Beyond Rice

Sérgio Leusin Júnior, a researcher at the Department of Economy and Statistics of Rio Grande do Sul’s planning office, offered a more cautious view, warning that Trump’s positions are notoriously unstable.

However, Leusin pointed out that other Brazilian exports, such as tobacco and cellulose, might also benefit as they compete with Canadian products that may now be more expensive. “Brazil has an advantage in these markets,” he said, hinting at potential price competitiveness gains.

Source: Correio do Povo

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