US corn export sales post multiyear highs, even without China

U.S. exporters last week sold unusually large volumes of corn that previously were possible only when China was active in the market.
But China was absent this time around, and its import intentions remain unclear for now.

However, the recent flurry of export sales reflect plentiful, cheap U.S. corn supplies that should help the United States easily retain its title as top exporter in 2024-25.

In the week ended Oct. 17, U.S. corn export sales totaled a whopping 4.18 million metric tons (164.7 million bushels), slightly edging all trade estimates. In the last couple of decades, only four other weeks featured larger totals, all in early 2021.

Those four weeks all boasted sales to China well above 3 million tons, though last week’s volume included just 10,000 tons to China, representing a fraction of a cargo. Essentially, China has yet to explicitly participate in the 2024-25 U.S. corn market.

This follows a disappointing trend for U.S. corn exporters, who in 2023-24 shipped just under 3 million tons to China, a four-year low and well off the 2020-21 peak of more than 21 million.

China imported almost 30 million tons of corn that season, though 2024-25 estimates range from 13 million to 19 million tons. Additionally, Brazil started corn trade with China two years ago, substantially cutting U.S. opportunity.

The following chart explores Brazil’s export volume of corn in the period comprising January through August between 2021 and 2024. The data comes from DataLiner.

Corn Exports from Brazilian Ports | Jan-Aug 2021 vs. Jan-Aug 2024 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

THE UNKNOWN

U.S. corn export sales to unknown destinations have surged in the latest two weeks, causing speculation that China could be buying under the radar. Unknown corn sales reached all-time highs in 2020-21 when China was very active in the U.S. market.

The Chinese buying theory cannot be ruled out, but unknown bookings have been ample in other years where China was not a factor. That includes 2016-17 and 2017-18, both strong years for U.S. corn exports.

Therefore, it is safer to assume for now that the heavy unknown sales are simply signaling a bountiful season ahead, potentially including more-than-normal interest from non-traditional players.

The unknown figures should be closely watched, though, as they have grown unusually large relative to total commitments. Unknown destinations accounted for 21% of all 2024-25 U.S. corn bookings as of Oct. 17, the highest share in eight years.

ON PACE

As of Oct. 17, U.S. corn export sales covered 40% of USDA’s full-year forecast for 2024-25, a three-year high for the date and above the year-ago 33%.

That compares with an Oct. 17 average of 31% between 2015 and 2019, years in which both corn prices were relatively low and China was not in the picture.

U.S. corn export demand looks promising as prices are globally competitive and No. 2 supplier Brazil’s offerings are smaller than last year. Additionally, Ukraine’s 2024-25 exports are pegged at seven-year lows.

However, the central United States desperately needs a break in the recent dry pattern, which has ravaged water levels in the Mississippi River and slowed barge movements to the Gulf.

Exports could be threatened if the problem persists. Forecasts suggest partial relief is in store next week, but longer-term outlooks indicate November may feature below-average precipitation.

Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own.

Source: Reuters

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