USDA Projects Modest Increase in Global Cotton Production and Exports

With little change in global cotton production and export forecasts, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported on Tuesday (March 11) that global cotton output is expected to reach 26.34 million tonnes, a slight 0.4% increase. Shipments are projected to rise by 0.5% to 9.3 million tonnes.

Although the USDA raised its global estimates from the previous month, production figures for Brazil and the U.S. remain unchanged. Brazil’s cotton output is projected at 3.7 million tonnes. However, the USDA anticipates a 1.6% increase in Brazilian cotton exports, reaching 2.83 million tonnes.

Brazilian cotton has been gaining traction in international markets, particularly as an alternative for China amid ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. The commodity, primarily produced in Mato Grosso and Bahia, is becoming a viable option for the Asian nation. The USDA forecasts that Brazil’s cotton stocks could decline by 5% to 83,170 tonnes, exerting pressure on both domestic and international trade negotiations.

These are the top destinations for Brazil’s cotton exports in 2024, according to DataLiner data.

Cotton Top Destinations | 2024 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

In the U.S., the harvest outlook remains steady at 3.14 million tonnes. Export figures are also unchanged, with shipments expected to total 2.39 million tonnes, according to the USDA.

The competitive landscape between Brazilian and U.S. cotton in global trade is expected to intensify. However, with no major changes in figures, market attention remains focused on production volumes and stock levels in key producing regions, including India and China.

The most notable upward revision was for Chinese cotton production, which is now projected to increase by 2.4% to 6.91 million tonnes. Meanwhile, China’s export levels remain unchanged from the previous month at 2,180 tonnes.

Behind the scenes, the Chinese government continues to encourage higher domestic production while curbing export activity. The introduction of tariffs on agricultural imports from other origins is expected to reshape global market dynamics.

In China, ending stocks are projected at 8.2 million tonnes, reflecting a slight 0.7% increase, according to USDA data.

As for India, the USDA maintains its February forecasts for both production and exports, which are expected to reach 5.44 million tonnes and 30,480 tonnes, respectively.

Meanwhile, the USDA revised global cotton stock projections downward by 0.1% to 17.05 million tonnes, a development that could provide support for cotton prices on the New York Stock Exchange.

Source: Globo Rural

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