USDA revamps global beef supply outlook

Global beef production is expected to reach 59.6 million tonnes of carcass-weight equivalent (CWE) in 2023, according to the latest United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates. This volume surpasses both the previous forecast of 59.1 million tonnes in April and the production of 59.3 million tonnes recorded last year.

Furthermore, global beef consumption is projected to reach 57.8 million tonnes, representing an increase of nearly 400,000 tonnes compared to the previous estimate. This total consumption also exceeds the 57.5 million tonnes consumed in 2022.

Leading beef producers

The United States is expected to maintain its position as the largest global beef producer, producing 12.4 million tonnes. This represents a 100,000-tonne increase compared to the April forecast, although it is slightly lower than the 12.9 million tonnes produced last year.

US beef exports are estimated to reach 1.5 million tonnes, surpassing the April forecast of 1.4 million tonnes but falling below the 1.6 million tonnes exported in the previous year.

Brazil will retain its position as the second-largest beef producer, with an estimated production of 10.65 million tonnes. This reflects an increase of 110,000 tonnes compared to the previous estimate and a significant increase of 300,000 tonnes compared to the total produced in 2022.

Brazilian beef exports are also expected to rise from 3.01 million tonnes in April to 3.05 million. In the previous year, Brazilian exports reached 2.9 million tonnes, as reported by the USDA.

The chart below shows Brazilian beef exports from Jan 2019 to May 2023 measured in tonnes, according to the DataLiner system.

Beef exports | Jan 2019 – May 2023 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Argentina is projected to produce 3.17 million tonnes, exceeding the previous forecast of 3 million tonnes and the production of 3.14 million tonnes in 2022.

Exports from Argentina are expected to reach 820,000 tonnes, indicating an increase of 25,000 tonnes compared to the April forecast and almost the same as the volume exported last year (823,000 tonnes).

As the world’s main global importer, the Chinese market is anticipated to import 3.5 million tonnes from other countries and 7.5 million tonnes produced domestically. This is in order to meet a total demand of 11 million tonnes.

Fonte: Globo Rural

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