Vale’s iron ore shipments estimated to have fallen 43% in January due to rains

This Wednesday (05/02), UBS released a report explaining that iron ore shipments from Brazil have been affected by rains at the beginning of the year. The company’s analysts estimate a 43% drop in Vale’s exports in January, year-on-year.

Vale’s shipments totaled around 18 million tons in January, down 29% from December, projected UBS, which attributed the performance to “seasonal rains that arrived earlier than usual”. Total exports from Brazil also fell by 19% in January according to government data, while UBS also saw lower shipments from CSN and Porto Sudeste.

According to UBS, Vale’s shipments totaled around 303 million tons in 2019, including 29 million tons in domestic sales, which would be slightly below the company’s sales forecast of between 307 million and 312 million tons. The data, however, does not take into account possible use of the company’s inventories in Asia and the Middle East, which could allow Vale to achieve its sales target for the year, analysts added.

The following graph, uses data derived from the DataLiner database to show Brazilian iron ore exports by quarter from 2015:

Source: Reuters

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