Wheat exports in Argentina deplete, Brazilian sales grow

A drought has been causing a productivity dip in Argentine wheat crops, and this year’s harvest is expected to drop to 17.5 million tonnes, the lowest in five years.

In view of these new figures, the USDA revised its projection for Argentine foreign sales to 12.5 million tonnes this month, 1 million less than what had been forecasted in September.

See below the track record of wheat exports (HS code 1001) from Argentina between January 2019 and August 2022, according to DataLiner.

Wheat Exports from Argentina | Jan 2019 – Aug 2022 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

As for Brazil, the estimate for exports in the harvest of 2022–2023 is 3.5 million tonnes due to the record-breaking national harvest of close to 10 million tonnes.

Wheat prices, which have been on the fall since June, rose again, and on Oct 13, the contract for a bushel of wheat traded in Chicago for December closed at US$ 8.92, up 1 .1% on the day.

The prices of cereals began to feel the influence of the war on the Black Sea and low stocks in exporting countries. In the United States, the volume is on track to fall to the lowest level since the 2007/08 harvest. Russia, on the other hand, will accumulate the highest inventories in 30 years.

The average price per tonne was US$459 in the United States and US$420 in Argentina, according to USDA. There was also a rise in product prices in Canada and the European Union.

In Australia and Russia, such increases were less pronounced because these countries had good harvests. However, despite a record harvest, due to trade embargoes, Russians will have difficulties placing the product on the foreign market.

For the UK and EU, USDA predicts lower inventories but higher consumption, mainly due to a switch from corn used in feed to wheat.

The European Union’s export estimate increased to 35 million tonnes due to a larger harvest; the United States’ export estimate decreased to 23 million due to lower production. According to the USDA, Brazil will import 6.2 million.

Source: Folha de S. Paulo

To read the full original article, please go to: https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/colunas/vaivem/2022/10/argentina-tem-menos-trigo-para-vender-e-brasil-exporta-mais.shtml

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