World’s largest coffee exporter says weather hit yields in Brazil

Coffee fields in Brazil’s Minas Gerais state faced extreme heat and drought between January and February, likely affecting yields for both the current 2025/26 crop and the following season, according to the Guaxupé Regional Coffee Growers’ Cooperative (Cooxupé), the world’s largest coffee exporter.

“There’s still a lot of climate instability. We don’t know what’s coming,” said Osvaldo Bachião Filho, Cooxupé’s vice president, during an online press conference held as part of Femagri, the cooperative’s annual agricultural fair in Guaxupé.

Temperatures in February surpassed those recorded in November, exceeding 32°C, Mr. Bachião noted. “Above that temperature, the coffee plant stops photosynthesizing.” He also said the heat led to reduced leaf growth in the coffee trees.

Adding to concerns, rainfall returned in recent days but has not reached all coffee-growing areas in the state. “Some regions are seeing rainfall volumes 60% below the historical average,” he said.

Carlos Augusto Rodrigues de Melo, Cooxupé’s president, said the actual impact on productivity will only become clear after the harvest and processing of the beans. Despite last season’s weather-related challenges, he noted that Cooxupé managed to purchase over 8 million bags of coffee last year and sold more than 7 million, including over 6 million bags exported. Revenue came in just under R$10 billion, according to Mr. Melo.

See below a history of Brazilian coffee exports over the last five years. The data is from DataLiner:

Brazilian Coffee Exports | Jan 2021 – Jan 2025 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

In 2023, the cooperative received 5.3 million bags, exported 3.7 million, and recorded R$6.4 billion in revenue.

“Even with the difficulties in production and supply, the cooperative had a very strong performance in 2024,” Mr. Melo said. Cooxupé is set to release its full financial results on the 28th.

Asked about the potential risk of U.S. tariffs on Brazilian coffee, Luiz Fernando dos Reis, Cooxupé’s commercial superintendent, said such a move would impact international prices and harm Brazil’s coffee exports. He noted, however, that while the U.S. had previously considered tariffs on Colombian coffee, it later reversed the decision.

“The U.S. depends on coffee imports. For every dollar spent on imported coffee, $43 is generated within the country through coffee-related economic activity,” Mr. Reis said. “So imposing tariffs would cut into domestic economic gains.”

Source: Valor International

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