WTO forecasts soothing of supply chains and revived export rates

Problems in global supply chains show signs of soothing, indicating a likely improvement in the flow of exports and imports, according to the World Trade Organization in its “goods barometer” published on the 21st.

The “barometer” intends to provide real-time data on global trade trends. A result of more than 100 implies trade growth above the medium-term trend, whereas a result of less than 100 indicates a tendency to reduce exports and imports.

According to the WTO, disruptions in supply chains have weakened the strength of the rebound of economies, but this may be changing. The December merchandise trade barometer was 98.7, down from 99.5 in November, showing a lack of momentum in early 2022 commerce after a robust rebound in trade volumes last year.

However, the WTO believes that the index has already bottomed out and that commodity trading may soon regain momentum, even if it remains low in the short term.

For the WTO, in addition to the continuous disruptions in the supply chain, the weakness of the barometer is partially explained by the sanitary restrictions to combat the omicron variant of covid-19, which some countries are now eliminating after the impact of the new variant on health showed itself was not as severe as initially thought.

The global organization assessed that the relaxation of these measures could boost trade in the coming months. However, future variants of covid-19 continue to present risks to economic activity and world trade.

Most barometer component indexes were close to 100, indicating a rising trend: export orders (99.9), air freight (101.7), electronic components (98.6), and raw materials (98.6). (101.6). This demonstrates that the deceleration is being slowed in certain regions. The automotive products index (92) remains below trend, but the situation has improved as more electronic components, especially semiconductors, are shipped.

The rate of container transport by ship (97.2) also continues below trend, indicating the continuing of port bottleneck issues. Overall, purchasing managers’ indexes show that delivery times are falling globally but not fast enough for many businesses and consumers.

Cumulatively, trade volume in the first three quarters of 2021 increased by 11.9% compared to the first three quarters of 2020, above the WTO forecast of 10.8% in October.

Fonte:Valor Econômico

To read the full original article please see:

https://valor.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2022/02/21/omc-v-abrandamento-nas-cadeias-de-abastecimento-e-provavel-alta-de-exportaes.ghtml

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