
WTO: World trade maintains strong recovery, but a slowdown is possible
Aug, 18, 2021 Posted by Ruth HollardWeek 202133
The recovery in world trade remains strong, but its pace could be slowed by disruptions in the supply chain, such as the semiconductor shortage that has recently hampered vehicle production.
This is what is seen by the World Trade Organization (WTO)’s Goods Trade Barometer, an indicator that aims to provide real-time information on the trajectory of world trade in goods in relation to recent trends.
See below the cargo movement in Brazil from January 2020. Data are from DataLiner:
Brazilian Imports and Exports | Jan 2020 to June 2021 | TEU
The barometer’s result in July is 110.4 points, up more than 20 points from 2020, “reflecting the strength of the ongoing recovery and the depth of the shock felt by the pandemic last year”. However, the WTO notes that the data suggest that the recovery in exports and imports may be slowing as the barometer index has started to rise at a declining rate.
In any case, according to the WTO, the results are consistent with the entity’s most recent forecast of 8% growth in the volume of world trade in goods in 2021.
Source: Valor Econômico
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