Trade Balance: Brazil Posts US$ 8.2 Billion Surplus in March as Exports Jump 5%

Brazil’s trade balance closed the month of March in positive territory, with a surplus of US$ 8.2 billion, marking a 13.8% increase compared to the same period of the previous year. This represents the historical series’s highest trade surplus ever recorded for March. The Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC) released the data this Friday, April 4.

The trade balance reflects US$ 29.2 billion in exports and US$ 21 billion in imports.

In volume terms, both exports and imports grew year over year—exports by 5% and imports by 4.2%. As for prices, exports rose by 0.4%, while import prices declined by 1.5%.

The macroeconomic research team at Itaú Unibanco, led by economist Mario Mesquita, noted that the result exceeded the bank’s projections and the market consensus, which were aiming for a US$ 7 billion surplus.

“The result came in stronger than expected, with higher exports and lower imports than we had projected. Exports gained momentum with the advance of the soybean harvest and a rise in meat exports. Meanwhile, imports slowed after two months of stronger readings. We expect the trade balance to continue improving, driven by a record harvest and a cooling economic activity ahead,” stated the analysis.

In terms of sectors, agriculture recorded the highest growth in export value, with a 16% year-over-year increase, reaching US$8.2 billion. The extractive industry posted US$5.5 billion in exports, representing a 15.3% drop in value and 10.6% in volume. The manufacturing industry reached US$15.3 billion, showing a 10.1% growth in value and 9% in volume.

Among individual products, soybean exports totaled US$5.73 billion, compared to US$5.35 billion in March of last year, accounting for 19.6% of all exports. Coffee exports reached US$1.42 billion, up 92% year-over-year, representing 4.9% of exports. Crude oil exports dropped by 20%, totaling US$2.8 billion and making up 10% of the monthly total. Iron ore fell 16.5% to US$2 billion, corresponding to 7% of Brazil’s exports in March.

Looking ahead to 2025, the MDIC estimates a trade surplus of US$70.2 billion, a slight decline from the previous year’s surplus of US$74.2 billion. Export projections for the year are set at US$353.1 billion, up from US$337 billion in 2024. Imports are forecast to reach US$282.9 billion, compared to US$262.9 billion last year.

Regarding the potential impact of the U.S. tariff policy, officials from the ministry stated they would not comment on the issue as the current data does not yet reflect the effects of President Trump’s new measures.

Herlon Brandão, Director of the Department of Foreign Trade Statistics and Studies, pointed out that even the steel tariffs implemented a few weeks ago have not yet impacted March’s figures.

“We have early shipment: companies ship goods and declare them later. Commodity operations often lag behind the calendar. Semi-manufactured steel, the main steel export to the U.S., totaled US$ 372 million, which represents a 23.9% increase,” said Brandão.

However, he acknowledged that Trump’s announcements might have influenced Trump’s growth.

Asked about this impact, Brandão said: “I can’t “make a statement definitively, but it’s a common pattern in international trade when some measure is announced. We see this, for instance, when Brazil announces an antidumping action—there’s a sharp increase [in imports] before the measure takes effect.”

According to “March trade data, crude petroleum oils (down 90%), engineering equipment and installations (down 62%), and aircraft and other equipment (down 21.7%) were the main exports to the U.S. that declined.

On the import side, engines and machines rose by 42%, crude petroleum oil increased by 78%, and automatic data processing machines jumped by 94%.

The March surplus also reversed February’s record of US$324 million, based on US$22.929 billion in exports and US$23.253 billion in imports.

That was the first trade deficit registered since January 2022, when a negative balance of US$59 million was posted. The result was driven by a 1.8% year-over-year drop in export value.

Source: IstoÉ Dinheiro

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