CONAB raises grain yield forecast to 273.8 m tons

CONAB (the national food supply company) has announced that the Brazilian grain harvest yield is forecast to reach 273.8 million tons, an increase of 6.5% over the previous cycle and an increase of 1.5 million tons compared to last month’s forecast.

The total planting area should grow 3.9% over the previous harvest, reaching around 68.5 million hectares. The increase is mainly due to the excellent performance of soybeans and corn. Approximately 20 million hectares will come from the second and third plantings (autumn and winter), after the first soybean and corn crops.

The CONAB survey is based on the harvest calendar, which starts in July and ends in June of the following year. In contrast, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) study covers the 12 months of the calendar year.

Soy

The forecast for soybeans, the primary Brazilian agribusiness product, is 135.5 million tons, up 8.6% compared to the last cycle, setting a new record.

Estimated sales to the foreign market for soybeans is 85.6 million tons (an increase of 3%). If the forecast is confirmed, it will set a new record sustained by the strong international demand and high sales for the current harvest.

Datamar data shows that 326 vessels called in Brazil to export soybeans during the first quarter of 2021. That is 10.7% less than the same period of last year, due to the delay in planting and harvesting observed this year. The rate of shipments is now set to accelerate during April leading to a new record in exports.

Corn

Corn production is also expected to reach a record 109 million tons, up 6.2% since the last harvest.

Even though corn exports continue at a slower pace, CONAB expects to send 35 million tons abroad from the current harvest, a value practically equal to that observed in the last harvest.

Rice and Beans

The bean harvest is forecast to grow 2%, totaling 3.3 million tons.

Rice, however, should suffer a production reduction of 0.8%, reaching 11.1 million tons.

Cotton

The forecast for cotton is 6.1 million tons, corresponding to 2.5 million tons of cotton bolls. Compared to the same period last year, cotton boll exports increased 18.1% in the year-to-date from January to March.

Peanuts and Wheat

The peanut harvest is forecast to grow 6.9%, reaching 596,800 tons.

With intensified planting starting in May, wheat should reach a crop of 6.4 million tons.

Source: G1

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