Brazilian corn is forecast to drop 15.5 % this year

The latest estimate by CONAB (the national food supply company) points out that in the 2020/2021 harvest, total production will be 86.6 million tons, a drop of 15.5% over the previous cycle.

CONAB attributed the reduction to the low occurrence of rain between the months of April and May. The drop should directly impact exports, among them those destined for North African countries, such as Egypt.

See below the main destinations for Brazilian corn as of January 2020. Data are from DataLiner:

Main Brazilian Corn Export Destinations (HS 1005) | Jan 2020 to June 2021 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (To request a DataLiner demo click here)

According to Anderson Galvão, analyst and CEO of the consulting firm Céleres, the expected initial volume for export of the Brazilian product was 40 million tons. This amount, however, could be reduced to just 18 million. “It’s a reduction of more than 50% from the initial volume. For this reason, countries like Egypt and others in North Africa and the Middle East – some of the main buyers of Brazilian corn – are going to have to seek supplies in other countries, such as Ukraine, Romania, Russia,” explained the consultant.

Galvão recalls that the situation is worsening since another important cereal producer in Latin America, Argentina, will also not have enough stock to meet global demand. Brazil, on the other hand, will only be able to export in large volumes again in 2022. “The supply picture in Brazil will only return to normal – if everything goes well – beginning in July of next year. There will be at least eight months of corn shortage”, pointed out the analyst.

Source:  ANBA – Brazil-Arab News Agency

To read the full original article, visit the link:

https://anba.com.br/quebra-na-safra-de-milho-deve-impactar-compras-arabes/

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