WTO raises to 10.8% the forecast of a rise in world trade in 2021 and indicates a slowdown to 4.7% in 2022

The World Trade Organization (WTO) raised its forecast for an increase in world trade in goods in 2021 to 10.8%, compared to the previously forecasted 8.0% in March. The review took into account the resurgence of global economic activity in the first half of 2021, which has brought the commodity trade to a level above the pre-pandemic peak.

At the same time, the WTO projects a deceleration of global trade in 2022 to 4.7%, compared to the previously forecasted 4.0% deceleration. The data were released on October 4th by the WTO, in Geneva.

According to the WTO, world trade flow growth is expected to become more moderate as the trade in goods approaches its long-term pre-pandemic trend. From the WTO’s perspective,  supply-side issues – such as semiconductor shortages and port delays – can strain supply chains and weigh on trade in specific areas, but are unlikely to have major impacts on global aggregates. The biggest downside risks come from the pandemic itself.

The institution stresses the fact that behind the strong overall increase in trade, there is a significant divergence between countries, with some developing regions falling far short of the global average. “Trade has been a critical tool in combating the pandemic and this strong growth underscores the importance of trade in sustaining the global economic recovery,” said Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala. “But unequal access to vaccines is exacerbating economic divergence between regions. The longer that vaccine inequality persists, the greater the chance that even more dangerous variants of COVID-19 will emerge, undermining the health and economic progress we’ve made so far,” she said.

Source: Comex do Brasil

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https://www.comexdobrasil.com/omc-eleva-para-108-previsao-de-alta-do-comercio-mundial-em-2021-e-indica-desaceleracao-para-47-em-2022/

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