Austrailia and Brazil reclaim control over the iron ore market

Brazil and Australia are expected to reassert their dominance over the iron ore market in the next two years as new mines have begun operating following the lifting of COVID restrictions.

Australia’s iron ore export rates should increase by almost 6% next year. Currently, the Australian government is hinting that total exports will reach the figure of 874 million tons in 2021 and possibly even more, as the data provided by AXS Marina show 876 million tons on December 23rd, 2021. In case this information is proven right, total exports would reach 923 million in 2022 and 948 million tons in 2033.

This leap in quantity in the iron ore market reflects the increased flexibility in COVID-imposed restrictions, which allowed mining companies to resume developing new mining capabilities.

Sanitary restrictions and the lack of qualified workers prevented Rio Tinto, for example, from reaching full production (43 million tonnes per year) at its Gudai-Darri iron mine in Western Australia in early 2022, as it was planned.

Instead, the company will not start its operations until the first quarter of next year. Other mining projects will also get underway after delays last year.

With these obstacles out of the way, Australia may increase its export potential by 50 million tonnes in 2022.

This situation coincides with a simultaneous increase in Brazil’s exports, as the country reached levels prior to the Brumadinho dam disaster.

The Australian government, which closely follows its closest competitor’s production forecasts, estimates that Brazil’s mineral exports could grow by nearly 9% in 2022 now that Vale has increased production capacity at its Vargem Grande complex and the pelletizing operations resumed once again.

The Australian government predicts that Brazil’s total exports will reach 362 million tonnes by 2021, increasing to 394 tonnes in 2022 and 412 million in 2023 (even though AXS Marine data says it is unlikely to happen).

Source: Mundo Marítimo

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