Brazil’s soybean exports forecast to fall 17% in 2019

In spite of a strong start to the year, agriculture consultancy firm, Safras & Mercado, announced an estimated 17% drop in Brazil’s soybean exports this year, compared to 2018. The organ expects the country’s soybean shipments will reach a total of a 70m ton this year.

SAFRAS indica exportação de 70 milhões de toneladas de soja em 2019 https://t.co/vm3AyZjiZA

— SAFRAS & Mercado (@SAFRASMERCADO) March 19, 2019

BIMCO agrees with this projected drop in exports stating, “Production of soya beans is expected to be lower, and with many stocks already depleted, the supply of Brazilian soya beans will most likely not match the level seen in 2018”.

Safras & Mercado believes Brazil’s soybean supply should fall 10% to 115.85m tons with demand projected at 115.65m tons. End of year grain stocks are therefore expected to be down 19% year-on-year from 248,000 tons to 200,000 tons.

According to Safras & Mercado, Brazil will likely crush 1% more oilseed, up from 42m tons last year to 42.5m tons this year, while soybean meal production will reach 32.375m tons, also up 1%. However, soybean meal stocks will increase by 121% to 3.422m tons, due to a 17% reduction in exports which is not compensated by a 3% increase in domestic consumption.

Soybean oil production should reach 8.46m tons this year, while exports are expected to drop to 700,000 tons in 2019, down 48% year-on-year, Safras & Mercado said.

The following DataLiner graph shows Brazil’s soybean export trend to China versus the rest of the world:

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