StoneX: Brazil 22/23 harvest forecast up; soybean exports down

The 2022/23 soybean harvest in Brazil was estimated at a record 154.35 million tonnes, according to a report published this Tuesday (01) by consultancy StoneX, which raised its forecast by 0.3% compared to October, with an adjustment in the planted area in some states and favorable weather.

On the other hand, the consultancy reduced by 4 million tonnes the projection of exports of 22/23 soybeans from Brazil, the largest global exporter and producer of the oilseed, citing concerns about demand from China.

The harvest was adjusted positively due to a revision of the planted area in Goiás and Minas Gerais, with the national total exceeding 43 million hectares.

“The weather so far has not brought any threats, with the potential to reach an absolute record maintained,” said StoneX market intelligence specialist Ana Luiza Lodi, in a note.

In the last harvest, hit by drought, Brazil produced 127.2 million tonnes.

Despite optimistic expectations, the next few months will be vital to determining the size of the oilseed crop due to the influence of La Niña for the third consecutive year.

“In terms of exports, Chinese demand is concerning, as the country has maintained strict lockdowns to combat Covid-19, causing StoneX’s estimate to be reduced from 100 million to 96 million tonnes,” said the expert.

See below the track record of the volume of soybeans (HS code 1201) exported by Brazil between January 2019 and August 2022. Data are from DataLiner.

Soybean Exports | January 2019 – August 2022 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Corn

The consultancy also raised the projection of total corn production in Brazil to 129.9 million tonnes, also a record, foreshadowing an increase in the second crop area, the largest in the country for the cereal.

StoneX released its first forecast for the second crop this Tuesday, pointing to 99.1 million tonnes, 4.5% above the 2021/22 crop estimate.

“Most of this increase should be driven by the expansion of the area destined for growing the cereal. In recent years, there has been a steady growth in the planted area, a trend that should continue to be observed”, he said, estimating an increase of around 3.6% compared to the 2021/22 season, to 17.9 million hectares.

StoneX market intelligence analyst João Pedro Lopes said the winter cycle is riskier, and estimates are subject to significant revisions.

The group’s only change concerning the first corn crop in 2022/23 was in the estimate of production in Minas Gerais. The planted area in the state was reduced by 12.3% from the forecast in October to 600 thousand hectares.

As a result, production in the state fell in the same proportion to 4.8 million tons, a volume 25.5% lower than that recorded in the 2021/22 season.

Thus, the estimate for the 2022/23 summer corn crop dropped to 28.6 million tonnes against 29.25 million in the previous report.

On the other hand, exports rose to 46 million tonnes, while domestic consumption rose to 81 million, an increase of 1 million tons compared to the previous number in both cases.

Source: Isto É Dinheiro

To read the full original article, please go to: https://www.istoedinheiro.com.br/stonex-eleva-projecoes-de/

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