Decreased imports sustain Brazil’s surplus balance in 1Q23

The Brazilian trade balance kept a surplus of USD 16.1 billion, a record value since the government started keeping records. For some economists, such results leave room for the surplus to grow more than initially expected, with imports falling more than exports in 2023. This supposition is backed by official government estimates.

According to data released on April 3rd, exports reached US$ 76.4 billion in the first quarter of the year, with a rise of 3.4% on average per working day. On the other hand, imports totaled US$ 60.4 billion, down 1.9%. In March alone, the trade balance saw a surplus of US$ 11 billion.

In a scenario of falling prices in the international market, government officials project a reduction of 2.8% in exports in 2023 and 11.8% in imports compared to 2022. The balance should reach USD 84 billion, exceeding by more than USD 20 billion last year’s record $62 billion.

Among aspects that may favor shipments, Matheus Ferreira, an economist at consultancy Tendências, underscores the reopening of the Chinese economy and the oil production cuts by OPEC, which brings together countries that export the commodity. On the other hand, the volume of Brazilian exports should be limited due to the slowdown in the world economy, he says.

In the coming months, says Ferreira, the prices of consumer goods will follow suit to the reduction in intermediate goods prices. “In addition, industrial goods prices should stay with little pressure, with the accommodation of global inflationary pressures on these items, propitiated by the reduction in maritime freight costs and the drop in global demand for goods, in favor of services.” He assesses that the volumes imported by Brazil should cool down, in line with the slowdown scenario for the domestic economy.

Source: Valor Econômico

To read the original news article, please go to: https://valor.globo.com/brasil/noticia/2023/04/04/queda-da-importacao-ajuda-balanca-a-ter-superavit-recorde-no-1o-trimestre.ghtml

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