Fertilizer consumption set to increase in Brazil in 2023

Consultants and banks estimate that fertilizer consumption in Brazil will increase this year. Projections suggest a range of 2.5% to 10% growth in deliveries.

This movement is driven by producers’ need to replenish the volumes used in their crops as input prices have fallen.

In 2022, after a 200% increase in fertilizer prices, deliveries to the Brazilian market fell by 10.4% compared to the previous year, totaling 41.078 million tons, according to data from the National Association for Fertilizer Diffusion (Anda).

For 2023, the market expects an increase in deliveries compared to 2022. The decline in fertilizer prices throughout the year, averaging 40% in imported input costs, and the fact that producers utilized part of the reserves accumulated in the soil in the previous year are contributing factors.

However, as of March, deliveries were 1.2% lower compared to the first quarter of the previous year, amounting to 8.553 million tonnes, according to Anda.

StoneX consultancy anticipates an increase of 2.5% to 5% in deliveries compared to 2022, reaching between 42 million and 43 million tonnes. Nevertheless, the numbers are subject to revision, according to Marcelo Mello, Director of Fertilizers at StoneX.

“The purchase of fertilizers by producers is significantly delayed, with a 16% decrease by the end of May compared to the previous two years. As we approach the second half, only 44% of the required amount has been sold, and the buying window is narrowing. This delay may ultimately impact the total deliveries for the year and create logistical challenges on the eve of the harvest,” explained Mello.

Itaú BBA expects a 7% increase in deliveries, totaling 43.592 million tonnes this year.

Rabobank estimates a 10% growth in volume delivered to the market, reaching 45.2 million tonnes.

The bank particularly predicts increased consumption of phosphate and potassium this year. Bruno Fonseca, Senior Agricultural Inputs Analyst at Rabobank, highlighted that while farmers still need to recover fertilizer purchases for the next planting season, consumption is expected to increase in 2023 and return to the trend line, as mentioned in a recent market report.

Source: Canal Rural

To read the original text, visit: https://www.canalrural.com.br/noticias/newsletter/consumo-de-fertilizantes-deve-aumentar-no-brasil-em-2023/

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