Brazil’s ABPA raises pork, poultry projections for 2023 and 2024

On Wednesday (August 16), the Brazilian Animal Protein Association (ABPA) unveiled its projections for poultry and pork production and exports in Brazil for the remainder of 2023 and throughout 2024. Some of the highlights lie in the higher numbers forecast for the production and export of chicken and pork meat. Additionally, a distinction arises between internal availability and per capita consumption, indicating an anticipated growth in chicken meat supply for this year and 2024, while pork consumption is set to remain stable.

CHICKEN MEAT

Regarding chicken meat, the data point to a production range between 14,800 and 14,950 million tonnes by the end of 2023, marking a potential 3% increase compared to 2022 figures. The projection for poultry protein production stands at up to 15,500 million tonnes, indicating an upswing of up to 4.5%.

Looking at chicken meat exports, 2023 is expected to end with shipments ranging from 5,100 to 5,200 million tonnes, marking an increase of up to 8% from 2022. The forecast for 2024 anticipates a growth rate of up to 5%, with shipments estimated at 5,350 million tonnes.

Another noteworthy point highlighted in the projections offered by ABPA refers to the domestic supply of chicken protein. In 2023, an increase to 9,850 million tonnes is projected, reflecting a rise of up to 1.5% compared to the previous year. A similar trend is expected to persist into 2024, projecting a 3% boost in chicken meat availability within the Brazilian domestic market, reaching 10,150 million tonnes.

The per capita consumption of poultry protein is also expected to rise. It is predicted to increase from 45.2 kilograms per inhabitant/year in 2022 to 46.00 kilograms by the end of 2023, marking a potential 1.5% rise. This positive trajectory is projected to continue into 2024, with an estimated increase of up to 3.00%, reaching a per capita consumption of 47.00 kilograms.

According to Ricardo Santin, President of ABPA, while the initial output projections stood at 15 million tonnes of chicken meat in 2023, this momentum has slowed due to preventative measures taken by companies.

He explained that a surge in exports in March coincided with the identification of avian influenza cases in South America. To adapt, companies are working to reduce accommodations and animal weight. Santin also affirmed that they aim to achieve the projected threshold of 5.100 million tonnes shipped with no avian influenza cases on commercial farms.

See below the volume of poultry exports exported from Brazil between Jan 2019 and Jun 2023. The data is from DataLiner.

Brazilian poultry exports | Jan 2019 – Jun 2023 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Looking ahead to 2024, Santin emphasized three key pillars that, if upheld, should support the Association’s presented figures: improvements in the economic environment, reductions in production and exports by competitors, and better coexistence with avian influenza cases.

PORK

In contrast to chicken meat, ABPA data indicates that both the domestic supply of pork meat and per capita consumption are set to remain stable throughout 2023 and 2024. In 2022, the volume of pork protein available on Brazilian soil reached 3,863 million tonnes, with per capita year-round consumption at 18.00 kilograms. These figures are expected to persist until the end of 2024.

As for pork production, 2023 may see a range of 4,950 to 5,050 million tonnes, marking a potential increase of up to 1.5% compared to 2022. The projection for 2024 suggests a further increase, estimating production within a range of 5,000 to 5,150 million tonnes, reflecting a potential growth of up to 4%.

Turning to pork exports, it is projected that by the end of this year, shipments will amount to between 4,950 and 5,050 million tonnes, marking an upswing of up to 12% in comparison to the previous year. Looking ahead to 2024, the trend is anticipated to continue, with exports expected to reach around 1,300 million tonnes, marking an increase of up to 8%.”

Brazilian pork exports | Jan 2019 – Jun 2023 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Source: Notícias Agrícolas

To read the original text, please visit: https://www.noticiasagricolas.com.br/noticias/granjeiros/357168-abpa-projeta-aumento-na-producao-e-exportacao-de-carne-suina-e-de-frango-para-2023-e-2024.html

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