Brazilian Corn Exports Expected to Decline in 2024 Following Output Decrease

In 2023, Brazilian corn exports stood at 55 million tonnes, solidifying its position as the world’s leading exporter of the cereal for the season. However, the outlook for 2024 appears different due to reduced grain availability domestically and the potential for sourcing from other regions, likely resulting in decreased Brazilian exports.

According to data from the National Association of Cereal Exporters (Anec), following record-breaking corn exports in 2023, Brazil is projected to export a maximum of 38 million tonnes throughout 2024. The association attributes this reduction directly to diminished expectations for corn production in the country this year.

“We anticipate a drop of approximately 20 million tonnes in the Brazilian output, which will significantly impact exports. With a domestic market that requires sustained supply and holds priority, often offering more attractive prices than the international market, our export volumes are expected to decrease,” explains Sérgio Mendes, General Director of Anec.

This correlation between reduced production and lower corn exports is also emphasized by StoneX Risk Management Consultant Étore Baroni, who forecasts shipments ranging between 35 and 40 million tonnes for 2024.

“The global demand for Brazilian corn is expected to decrease slightly in 2024. This doesn’t imply a loss of preference for Brazilian corn or a decline in competitiveness. However, given our projected production of 90 million tons in the second crop and domestic consumption of 42 million tons, leaving 48 million tons for export, our surplus will be reduced this year due to decreased planting area and production. Last year, we exported 55 million tons, and this year’s figure is likely to be closer to 35 or 40 million,” says Baroni.

Roberto Carlos Rafael from Germinar Corretora echoes this sentiment, suggesting that despite reduced production, Brazilian corn exports may still range from 40 to 52 million tonnes, contingent upon final production levels.

“Considering both the second crop and the summer crop, market estimates suggest a total production between 115 and 124 million tons. Although smaller than last year’s harvest, this crop will still yield a surplus for export. I believe Brazilian exports will range from 40 to 52 million tons. Our carryover stocks exceed those disclosed by Conab. While Conab states we began January 31st with 7 million tons in stock, market data indicates higher figures,” Rafael comments.

International competition

The projected decrease in Brazilian corn exports for 2024 reflects a decline in domestic production from the previous year. However, competition from other origins, such as the United States, Ukraine, and Argentina, may further impact Brazil’s position in the international market.

The following chart shows the export volume of Brazilian corn from January 2022 to February 2024. The data comes from Datamar’s top-notch maritime trade intelligence service DataLiner.

Brazilian Corn Exports | Jan 2022 – Fev 2024 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

“It’s important to recognize that the world currently holds substantial corn stocks. The United States maintains reserves of 60 million tons, Argentina is producing 25 million tons more than last year, and there’s a significant harvest in China and Ukraine. Consequently, global corn supply is abundant,” Baroni emphasizes.

“At present, Brazil’s corn prices are higher than those of competing countries like Argentina, Ukraine, and the United States due to delayed producer sales seeking higher prices. This has potentially hampered our export program,” Rafael adds.

Nevertheless, Anec remains optimistic about Brazil’s competitiveness in the international market. Despite temporary export reductions, a rebound in production is expected to naturally boost exports, especially with many countries expressing continued interest in Brazilian corn.

“While concerns exist regarding market competitiveness, it’s primarily crop failures that impact exports. As production rebounds, so will exports. Some countries, particularly those in Africa, are actively seeking Brazilian corn, recognizing its reliability amidst global market fluctuations,” Mendes concludes.

Source: Notícias Agrícolas

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