Rise in Wheat Imports Highlights Shortage in Brazil

Brazil’s milling industry has been increasing wheat imports, primarily from Argentina. The move seeks to offset limited domestic supply and anticipate potential impacts from the reduced planted area in the current crop. This trend raises concerns about the country’s dependence on foreign supply amid uncertainties in the national market.

According to data from Cepea (Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics), Brazil imported 487.04 thousand tons of wheat in June, with 94.1% of that volume coming from Argentina—approximately 458.18 thousand tons. Paraguay accounted for 5.9% of the total, shipping 28.85 thousand tons. In the first half of 2025, total imports reached 3.58 million tons, representing a 6.3% increase compared to the same period in 2024.

Below is a historical overview of wheat and meslin exports from Brazil. The chart was prepared using DataLiner data:

Wheat and Meslin Exports | Brazil | Jan 2021 – May 2025 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

This movement reflects not only the low internal availability but also a strategic effort by mills to anticipate a possible decline in domestic production. The outlook for reduced planted area, combined with climatic factors and economic uncertainties, has prompted stakeholders to secure supply through imports.

Despite the higher inflow of wheat into the country, domestic prices remain stable. Cepea surveys show that currency pressures and reduced buyer activity in the market influence the drop. This devaluation has led sellers to act cautiously, often postponing negotiations in hopes of better conditions.

This scenario underscores Brazil’s wheat market sensitivity to external dynamics, particularly Argentine production. The neighboring country, historically Brazil’s main wheat supplier, continues to play a strategic role in national supply.

In the coming months, exchange rate trends and the development of the harvest in Mercosur countries are expected to keep influencing domestic prices and import activity. Attention is also focused on Brazil’s new season, which still carries uncertainties regarding acreage and productivity.

Source: Agro Link

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