Trump’s New Tariff on Brazil Threatens the Port of Santos, Which Has Already Exported R$12.8 Billion to the U.S.; Understand the Impact

The 50% tariff announced by the United States on Brazilian products is expected to negatively impact exports starting August 1, the date set for the measure to take effect. The possibility of reduced shipments to the American market is already raising alarms at the Port of Santos, Brazil’s main trade hub—responsible for 30% of the country’s international trade—which now risks losing cargo if no solution is found to the standoff.

In 2024, the U.S. imported over 8.1 million tons through the Port of Santos, totaling R$12.8 billion. This accounts for 12.6% of all exports from the port complex, placing the U.S. just behind China, which imported 42.4 million tons (R$26 billion, or 25.5%). The data was provided by the Santos Port Authority (APS).

Below is a historical overview of exports from Santos Port to the United States. The chart was prepared using DataLiner data:

Exports from Santos Port to United States | Jan 2022 – May 2025 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

According to APS, the top five products exported to the U.S. last year were coffee beans, crude oil, orange juice, machinery and equipment, and beef.

“There’s no doubt the tariff will impact Brazil and force a reorganization of relations with other trade partners. In this regard, the Santos Port Authority is prepared to handle potential changes in the cargo profile,” APS said in a statement to the press.

Trade Balance
The administrator of Brazil’s main port also mentioned that, including the first half of 2025, the U.S. has maintained a trade surplus. “Over the last 16 years, according to the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC), the trade advantage stands at US$90 billion in favor of the U.S. Therefore, we hope they do not go through with the threat (of a 50% tariff), as they would ultimately be at a loss.”

Losses
According to lawyer Emanuel Pessoa, PhD in Economic Law and professor at the China Foreign Affairs University, approximately 35% of Brazil’s exports to the U.S.—estimated at US$38 billion (2024)—passed through the Port of Santos.

“That represents around US$13.3 billion in goods. With the potential tariff hike, a drop of up to 25% is projected, resulting in a reduction of about US$3.3 billion in export flow through Santos by December,” he analyzed.

“This slowdown will hurt the port’s revenue. Considering an average revenue of 0.8% on the value of exported goods, the direct impact on port revenues could exceed US$26 million—approximately R$145 million at the current exchange rate,” he added.

Inland Transport
There may also be a decline in overland transport. “With fewer shipments departing from states such as Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Goiás, São Paulo, Paraná, and Minas Gerais, freight volumes bound for Santos may drop between 10% and 18%. This would affect carriers, agricultural cooperatives, and independent truckers, especially along the Santos-Campinas-Rondonópolis logistics corridor, which handles a large share of agri-industrial and refrigerated products for export,” said Pessoa.
The expert also noted that, in a moderate scenario, up to 800 direct jobs could be affected at the Port of Santos alone, in addition to around 2,000 indirect jobs in logistics, security, and general services.

Market Fears Sales Impact
Brazilian ports handle 95% of all goods produced in the country. As such, a 50% import tariff imposed by the U.S. on Brazilian products would impact not only the foreign trade chain but also port operations and the domestic economy.

“Any change in import tariffs affects foreign trade activity and, as a result, port operations. There is still not enough data to assess the economic and social impact,” said Sérgio Aquino, president of the National Federation of Port Operations (Fenop).

For José Augusto de Castro, executive president of the Brazilian Foreign Trade Association (AEB), the measure poses a threat to the country’s economy. “This is certainly one of the highest tariffs ever imposed on a country in international trade history, usually reserved for the worst enemies—something Brazil has never been.”

Castro fears the U.S. announcement could tarnish Brazil’s image, causing apprehension among importers from other countries when doing business. “Who wants to risk upsetting President Trump? Still, we believe common sense will prevail and the tariff will be reversed.”

Arno Gleisner, Director of Foreign Trade at the Chamber of Commerce, Industry, and Services of Brazil (Cisbra), stated that the sector is worried and perplexed. “If the 50% tariffs are upheld, the direct impact on Brazilian exports to the U.S. will be huge. The U.S. market is the largest in the world, importing a wide range of products. In Brazil’s case, affected products include oil, coffee, meat, sugar, pulp, juices, fruit, semi-finished steel, aluminum, aircraft, and parts.”

Gleisner also warned that Cisbra’s ongoing Nearshoring project, which aims to expand trade with nearby partners, could be harmed by the new tariffs. “The project envisions a strong boost in Brazilian exports to the United States.”

The executive added that while Brazilian exporters are already exploring other markets, none offer the scale and diversity of the U.S. market.

Tariff on Brazilian Coffee Could Rise 400%
Brazil is the main coffee supplier to the United States. In 2024, the country exported 8.1 million bags to the U.S., 34% more than the 6.1 million bags in 2023, accounting for 16.1% of all coffee exports last year. Currently, the U.S. import tax is 10%. If the 50% tariff takes effect, that would represent a 400% increase.

So far this year, in the first five months, the U.S. has already imported 2.9 million bags of Brazilian coffee, accounting for 17.1% of the total.

“It’s the most important country in terms of coffee consumption, around 24 million bags, and Brazil is the top supplier in that market, with over 30% market share,” said Marcos Matos, Director-General of the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé).

According to him, the entity is pursuing a positive agenda with the U.S. National Coffee Association. “It’s important to remember that coffee generates a lot of wealth in the United States.”
The executive also noted that the U.S. adds value through industrial processing. “For every US$1 of imported coffee, US$43 is generated in the U.S. economy, 2.2 million jobs, and 1.2% of U.S. GDP, totaling US$300.1 billion. That’s because 76% of Americans drink coffee—it’s the most consumed beverage in the market today.”

Finally, Matos expressed hope that common sense and market predictability will prevail, as the burden will ultimately fall on American consumers. “Anything that impacts consumption is harmful to trade flows, industry, and development in both producing and consuming countries. Therefore, we remain hopeful for a much more appropriate and favorable condition for Brazilian coffee trade with the United States.”

Source: A Tribuna 

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