Trump tariff hike threatens to halt Brazilian tilapia exports after 52% surge in 2025

The first half of 2025 brought both positive results and significant challenges for Brazil’s fish farming sector, according to PEIXE BR. In the domestic market, the industry maintained its expected growth pace, driven by increased supply and lower consumer prices compared to the same period in 2024.

In international shipments, the sector recorded a 52% increase in exports, primarily of fresh fillets to the United States. The expectation had been for this volume to grow further throughout the year, positioning Brazil as a leading exporter. However, a recent announcement by the U.S. government has altered those projections.

“Due to the 50% tariff and the lack of action by the Brazilian government to negotiate, we expect exports in the second half to fall close to zero. This will worsen the domestic market crisis, given the increased supply and especially the entry of tilapia fillets from Vietnam, which is likely to exacerbate the situation,” stressed PEIXE BR president Francisco Medeiros.

Tilapia prices fall 14.6%

According to Medeiros, tilapia consumption has remained stable due to continued growth in production. However, a decline in the production of tambaqui and native fish species has limited the overall expansion of fish consumption in Brazil.

In terms of prices, the Brazilian tilapia market faced a challenging scenario in the first half of 2025, driven by significant shifts compared to the same period in 2024.

According to Thiago Bernardino de Carvalho, coordinator of Livestock and Tilapia at Cepea/Esalq, the average price of tilapia during the period was R$8.04/kg, representing a nominal 14.6% drop compared to R$9.42/kg in the first half of 2024. At the same time, the average weight of fish sold increased by 11.1%, from 921 grams to 1,023 grams, indicating a greater supply of heavier tilapia in the market.

“Although there was a slight reduction in feed costs—down 2.9% from R$2.78/kg to R$2.70/kg—this decrease was not enough to offset the pressure on producers’ margins. The average gross margin on farms monitored by Cepea dropped 45.5%, from R$2.82 to R$1.54 per kilo sold,” Carvalho noted.

Additionally, there was a sharp 18.7% increase in the stocking of fingerlings and juveniles, primarily driven by cooperatives, indicating expectations for higher future production.

Exports grow 52% in early 2025

In foreign trade, the sector saw positive results. According to Manoel Pedroza, a researcher at Embrapa Fish and Aquaculture, Brazilian fish farming exports increased by 52% in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, reaching US$36 million and 8,000 tonnes.

“Tilapia was the main driver, accounting for 95% of total exports in the semester, solidifying its role as the leading farmed fish cultivated and sold internationally by Brazil,” Carvalho said.

Among destination countries, the United States remained the top buyer of Brazilian aquaculture exports, accounting for approximately 90% of the total exported in the first half of 2025, with a value of US$32 million. “Peru was the second-largest importer during the period, with US$1.8 million,” Pedroza added.

Vietnamese imports raise industry concerns

The import of tilapia from other countries, especially Vietnam, has raised concerns among Brazilian producers and stakeholders in the national aquaculture supply chain.

According to Carvalho, imported fish are entering the Brazilian market at significantly lower prices than domestic products, which could constitute a dumping practice. This threatens the economic viability of domestic production and endangers the sustainability of many local farms and cooperatives.

“In a highly negative development, the importation of Vietnamese tilapia fillets highlights the Brazilian government’s mishandling of the sector, despite having a ministry dedicated to its oversight. Vietnam employs industrial practices that are prohibited in Brazilian plants, which undermines our competitiveness,” warned PEIXE BR’s president.

To address this situation, the sector is currently taking steps to minimize the sanitary and economic risks associated with Vietnamese tilapia imports, aiming to prevent potential harm to the supply chain and consumers, according to the Embrapa researcher.

Challenging outlook for the second half

Medeiros believes that the combination of unrestricted imports and the suspension of tilapia fillet exports to the U.S. creates uncertainty for the industry. “Over the next 12 months, Brazil’s tilapia supply chain will face major challenges in both domestic and international markets,” he emphasized.

Domestically, the main challenge is to increase per capita tilapia consumption. To achieve this, Carvalho said, it will be essential to diversify the product mix—a strategy that has been well implemented by processors and retailers in recent years.

On the international front, the U.S. tariff hike is expected to have a significant impact on Brazilian fish farming exports in the second half of 2025, particularly for tilapia, posing major hurdles for the industry.

In this context, opening new foreign markets will be crucial to ensuring the international competitiveness of the supply chain. “To do this, the sector will need to make a major effort to enter new countries and invest in frozen product exports, which make up the bulk of global trade in fish like tilapia,” said Carvalho.

Despite the challenges, experts believe that Brazilian tilapia has the potential to gain value, provided that public policies and infrastructure investments enhance the sector’s ability to compete globally.

Source: Comex do Brasil

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