Brazilian beef exports expected to rise over 6% in 2025 despite U.S. tariffs

Brazilian beef exports are expected to rise by 6.24% in 2025, reaching 4.448 million tonnes, according to forecasts by consultancy Safras & Mercado. In 2024, exports totaled 4.187 million tonnes.

Beef imports into Brazil are projected to reach 44,100 tonnes in 2025, down 6.02% from the 46,900 tonnes imported in 2024. Meanwhile, domestic beef production is expected to reach 10.881 million tonnes in 2025, representing a 1.56% increase from the 10.714 million tonnes produced in 2024.

An estimated 6.476 million tonnes of beef will be allocated to the domestic market in 2025, representing a 1.47% decline from the 6.573 million tonnes available in 2024.

Record despite tariffs

According to Fernando Henrique Iglesias, an analyst at Safras & Mercado, Brazil is still on track to set a new record for beef exports this year, despite the impact of the new U.S. tariffs. Iglesias attributes this projection to strong performance in the first half of 2025, during which beef shipments were nearly 100% higher than the same period last year.

Below is a chart showing the main destinations for Brazilian beef exports in the first half of 2025. The chart was prepared using DataLiner data:

Main destinations for Brazilian beef | Jan–Jun 2025 | TEU

TOP 10 Destinos da Carne Bovina Brasileira - Jan a Jun 2025 - TEU

Source: DataLiner (Click here to request a demo)

In July alone, Brazil set a new monthly export record. According to the Brazilian Meatpackers Association (Abrafrigo), the industry’s total exports reached US$1.726 billion, a 48.4% increase over the same month last year. Volume totaled 366,920 tonnes, up 27.4%, marking a new all-time high for a single month in both revenue and volume. In July 2024, exports were US$1.163 billion with 288,014 tonnes shipped.

Source: Canal Rural

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