Imports to hit record in 2025, affecting trade balance, CNI says

A projection released this Friday (17) by the National Confederation of Industry (CNI) indicates that Brazilian imports will reach a record level in 2025. According to the confederation’s quarterly report, the trend could impact the country’s trade balance, driven by lower international prices and stronger domestic demand for imported goods.

CNI estimates that Brazil will spend US$287.1 billion on imports, a 4.8% increase compared with 2024. The trade balance — the difference between a country’s exports and imports over a given period — is expected to remain in surplus at US$60.5 billion, though 8.2% lower than last year.

In 2024, Brazil recorded a trade surplus of US$74.6 billion, with total imports reaching US$262.5 billion, mainly driven by capital goods.

The report also notes that as of September 2025, Brazil’s purchases of foreign products had already totaled US$212.3 billion, 8.2% higher than in the same period a year earlier.

Sectors with the largest import growth so far:

Capital goods: up 26.7%

Intermediate goods: up 9.4%

Consumer goods: up 4%

“This show of import strength has defined 2025, with no signs of slowing down over the next three months,” said CNI. “Imports are expected to reach US$287.1 billion in 2025, 4.8% above 2024 levels. As a result, the trade balance surplus is projected at US$60.5 billion, 8.2% below last year’s figure.”

Brazil–U.S. relations
CNI’s outlook also factors in the ongoing trade tensions with the United States, which have intensified in recent months.

“Since July, the new U.S. trade policy has harmed Brazilian manufacturing exports to the U.S. However, the positive performance of the manufacturing, extractive, and agricultural sectors earlier this year should still allow total exports to grow 2.3% year on year,” the statement said.

Currently, several Brazilian products exported to the U.S. face a 50% tariff, imposed since early August 2025. The American government cited “unfair trade practices” and ongoing criminal proceedings involving former president Jair Bolsonaro as justification for the measure.

On Thursday (16), Brazil’s Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira met with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the White House. Vieira described the meeting as “productive.”

Source: CNN Brasil

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