Brazil’s Beef Industry Ends Historic Year as Sector Awaits China’s Import Ruling

The two-month extension of China’s investigation into the surge in beef imports — mainly from Brazil — did not bring complete relief to Brazilian meatpackers. Still, it did provide a calmer end to a “historic year.” The process, which may result in China adopting some form of safeguard, such as quotas or tariffs, will only be concluded in January 2026. Chinese authorities are assessing whether the increase in imports between 2019 and 2024 harmed their domestic market.

The investigation is not focused exclusively on Brazilian exporters, but it still raises concern. Even with the removal of U.S. tariffs — the second-largest market — Brazilian processors do not consider losing ground in China an option.

From January to October, Brazil exported 2.79 million tonnes of beef to more than 160 destinations, totaling US$14.31 billion. China imported nearly half of that: 1.34 million tonnes worth US$7.1 billion. Expectations are to close 2025 with 1.6 million tonnes shipped to Chinese ports and a worldwide record of 3 million tonnes, with revenue close to US$15 billion.

See below a historical series of Brazilian beef exports to China starting in January 2022. The chart was prepared with DataLiner data:

Brazilian Beef Exports to China | Jan 2022 to Sep 2025 | TEU

Source: DataLiner (Click here to request a demo)

Unofficially, those following the investigation say several options are on the table. One is for China to adopt a global quota for beef imports, divided proportionally among exporting countries, with a specific tariff on volumes exceeding the quota. Under this scenario, Brazil would not be significantly harmed, as it is currently the leading supplier.

If such a safeguard is implemented, industry assessments suggest that “generous” quotas could be established to avoid harming exporters already established in the Chinese market, while creating barriers for new entrants. In practice, the measure would freeze the market’s current structure.

Chinese authorities could also choose to impose a global quota with specific criteria, administered by the country’s General Administration of Customs (GACC). Such a measure would be “awful” for Brazil and could “disrupt the market,” said a source familiar with the matter.

Brazil’s private sector is waiting for the decision before speaking publicly. From a legal standpoint, exporters believe China’s investigative process violates World Trade Organization (WTO) rules. If the January ruling is highly unfavorable, Brazil may take the case to the WTO.

China “buys time”

The new extension allows China to “buy time” as it prioritizes trade negotiations with the United States. Beef prices in the Chinese market have begun to recover, reducing the perception of damage caused by imports, sources say. China’s challenge is to respect multilateral commitments while responding to pressure from its domestic agricultural sector.

The U.S. does not have the capacity to meet China’s beef demand, one source noted. In 2024, for example, Americans sold less than 140,000 tonnes of beef to China, while Brazil exported more than 1.3 million tonnes.

Products shipped by Brazil and the U.S. have different characteristics and purposes. American beef has a higher added value and is sold as premium cuts for Chinese consumers. Brazilian protein is mainly used in sauce-based dishes and has lower added value.

Another source said China has limited “choice” when it comes to suppliers. “Brazil will not reduce prices or offer tariff discounts — anything like that will simply be built into the price. Beef will become more expensive,” the person said. “They want us to stop exporting, but who will fill that demand? They don’t have the internal production for that, and neither do our competitors. Brazil grew in the space left by the U.S. and Australia, not because consumption increased,” they added.

“They’re trying to maintain an import level that doesn’t hurt local producer prices. They’re losing a lot of money,” said the owner of a meatpacking company.

The Brazilian Association of Beef Exporters (ABIEC) and the Brazilian Meatpackers Association (ABRAFRIGO) are awaiting China’s decision before commenting. Abiec applied to participate in the process and submitted information on the growth of Brazilian exports. The strategy was to show that Brazilian products complement China’s industry. Most Brazilian beef is sent for processing by Chinese companies and does not “take market share” from local producers.

Source: Globo Rural

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