Brazil expected to import 7.3 million tonnes of wheat in the 2025/26 crop year, says the USDA

Brazil is expected to import around 7.3 million tonnes of wheat in the 2025/26 crop year, according to projections by the attaché of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). The volume is virtually the same as in the previous season (2024/25), when external purchases totaled 7.299 million tonnes.

According to the U.S. agency, Brazil will start the new cycle with initial stocks estimated at 2.687 million tonnes, maintaining a level considered comfortable for domestic supply, but still dependent on imports to balance availability.

Domestic production expected to reach 7.7 million tonnes

Brazilian wheat production for 2025/26 is estimated at 7.7 million tonnes, a volume similar to the previous crop year. As a result, total wheat supply in the country is expected to reach 17.687 million tonnes, comprising domestic production, initial stocks, and imports.

Brazil remains among the world’s largest wheat importers, as domestic production—concentrated in the South and Central-West regions—is still insufficient to meet total national demand.

Exports expected to rise to 2 million tonnes

Brazilian wheat exports are also expected to rise slightly. According to the USDA, shipments are projected to increase from 1.894 million tonnes in 2024/25 to 2 million tonnes in 2025/26, driven by the good quality of domestic wheat and demand from South American countries.

Despite growth in exports, the domestic market remains the leading destination for grain, accounting for the bulk of national production.

Domestic consumption and ending stocks

Wheat consumption in Brazil is projected at 12.35 million tonnes in the 2025/26 crop year, reflecting stability in the milling sector and a gradual recovery in consumption of wheat-based products such as bread, pasta, and biscuits.

Under this scenario, ending stocks at the close of the cycle are expected to reach 3.337 million tonnes, a volume higher than in the previous season and sufficient to ensure short-term supply balance.

Outlook for the sector

USDA projections point to stability in the Brazilian wheat market in 2025/26, with imports remaining at high levels and domestic production in line with recent-year averages.

The combination of firm demand, volatile exchange rates, and production costs is expected to continue influencing the competitiveness of Brazilian wheat relative to imported product, especially wheat from Argentina, Brazil’s leading supplier.

Source: Portal do Agronegócio

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